Must read - The "Iron Law" of Climate Policy

[Roger Pielke, Jr. s a professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He recently published a book called the “Climate Fix” which deals with the practical problems of implementing effective climate policy legislation. In his book he puts forth the rationale behind the “Iron Law” of Climate Policy: The "iron law" simply states that while people are often willing to pay some price for achieving environmental objectives, that willingness has its limits.

Most climate policies such as cap and trade and/or carbon tax are imposing cost on today’s generation for which they will see no benefit. Since CO2 will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and unlike past environmental problems such as acid rain, CFCs (ozone destruction), etc any reduction in CO2 emission will only SLOW DOWN the rate of global warming. It will not stop the warming of the planet, never mind reversing the trend. So, although the public will go a small way to doing their “bit” to reduce CO2 emissions it is unlikely that they will accept the massive cost increases and radical changes to their lifestyle for the benefit of generations hundreds or thousands of years from now.

Roger Pielke has argued, as I have, that we need climate policies that provide IMMEDIATE and tangible benefits to the public, but have the added feature of also reducing CO2 emissions. Such policies must also be conducive to our current lifestyle and not demand a sack cloth and ashes solutions. Hence my argument for policies like “cap and reward” where consumers and businesses would receive credits directly to purchase low carbon products or services in exchange for paying a carbon tax or levy on their carbon consumption. Rather than having a carbon levy disappear in the hands of government to be spent on dubious projects heavily influenced by lobbyists, or worse into the hands of unscrupulous carbon offset traders, the money would be returned directly to consumers. The only catch is that consumer is restricted to e spending the returned funds on low carbon products or services, hopefully creating a virtuous circle of low carbon living.

The Internet can play a major role in delivering these low carbon products or services through de-materialization of physical products. The Internet and broadband delivery to the home can also be a leading example, in its own right, of an eligible low carbon product that could be paid for through these carbon credits.

Some would argue that energy efficiency should be part of this equation, as well. But for those of you who follow my blog know that I am very skeptical about energy efficiency in any form as it is tackling the wrong problem. The problem facing this planet is not energy consumption, but the type of energy we are consuming. We need to address the real problem – and that is eliminating energy sources that produce CO2. Smart ICT (Information, Computer, Telecommunication) technologies that eliminate the need for energy produced from fossil fuels directly, rather than trying to improve overall energy efficiency, will have far more greater bang for the buck.

I have cited many examples of this type of approach in my writings and blogs such as powering data centers with renewable energy, mobile charging for electric vehicles, 400 Hz multiplex electrical systems to power all standby electronics in our homes, solar powered cell phone networks, etc. These approaches also enhance and complement today’s modern suburban lifestyle of commuting and conspicuous consumption – which is necessary for consumer adoption.

Although ICT, including the Internet, represents 2-3% of all global emissions and 6-10% of energy consumption, it is doubling every 10 years. Even in our homes, according to the IEA, ICT products and services, in aggregate consume more energy than our traditional appliances such as stove, dishwashers etc. While other sectors of society are starting to address their CO2 emissions, the ICT community has barely started. Given the rapid growth of the ICT industry if we do not do something soon, in a few years we will soon be seen as the bad boys of CO2 emissions. – BSA]

Roger Pielke’s blog
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/

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Excellent new OECD report on Green ICT

OECD countries agree to tackle global environmental challenges through information and communication technologies (ICTs)
http://www.oecd.org/site/0,3407,en_21571361_45683854_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

Boosting sustainable economic growth is high on government agendas. The Recommendation of the OECD Council on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and the Environment supports governments to increase the environmental benefits of ICT applications and improve environmental impacts of ICTs. As governments embark on green growth paths, this recommendation addresses areas where public sector action can help overcome shortcomings identified in OECD reports on ICT and the environment. OECD analysis shows that most “Green ICT” initiatives concentrate on the direct effects of ICTs themselves rather than tackling climate change and environmental degradation through the use of ICTs as an enabling or “smart” technology

About the ICCP Technology Foresight Forum

First launched in 2005, Technology Foresight Forums are an annual event organised by the OECD Committee for Information, Computer, and Communications Policy to help identify opportunities and challenges for the Internet Economy posed by technical developments. Foresight forums represent a collaborative effort of policy makers from member and non-member governments, business, civil society, and the Internet technical community. Past forum topics include RFID, Next Generation Networks, Participative Web, and Cloud computing.

Greener and Smarter: ICTs, the environment and climate change
Synthesis report

http://www.oecd.org/document/40/0,3343,en_21571361_45683854_45982952_1_1_1_1,00.html

The report develops a framework for assessing the environmental benefits and impacts of ICTs, including the direct impacts of technologies themselves as well the impacts of ICTs in improving environmental performance more widely. The report outlines empirical findings on environmental impacts for a range of ICT and Internet applications in energy, transport, waste management and others.

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are a key enabler of “green growth” in all sectors of the economy. They are a key part of government strategies for a sustainable economic
recovery.

“Greener and smarter” ICTs include ICTs with better environmental performance than previous generations (direct impacts) and ICTs that can be used to improve environmental performance
throughout the economy and society (enabling and systemic impacts).

-Direct environmental impacts of ICTs are considerable in areas such as energy use, materials throughput and end-of-life treatment. Government “green ICT” policies can be instrumental in promoting life-cycle approaches for improved R&D and design of ICT goods, services and systems.

Innovative ICT applications enable sustainable production and consumption across the entire economy. The potential for improving environmental performance targets specific products, but also entire systems and industry sectors, e.g. construction, transport, energy. Governments can promote cross-sector R&D programmes, national and regional initiatives as well as local pilot projects. This is particularly important in areas where structural barriers, e.g. lack of commercial incentives or high investment costs, may hinder the rapid uptake of “smart” ICTs.

Information and communication are pivotal for system-wide mitigation of environmental impacts and adaptation to inevitable changes in the environment. Governments can stimulate further research into the systemic impacts – intended and unintended – of the diffusion of ICTs in order to assess how ICTs and the Internet contribute to environmental policy goals in the long term.

Measurement of the environmental impacts of “green and smart” ICTs remains an important issue to address. Especially with regards to enabling and systemic impacts, available empirical analysis is methodologically diverse, making comparisons difficult.
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Solar roadways - a must watch video

SOLAR ROADWAYS...
This is the freshest idea yet about out-of-the-box thinking on how to use solar power. The inventors claim that if all the roadways in the US were converted to solar panels there would be enough energy to power the entire US plus more

As I mentioned before depending on the utilities to solve our green house gas and energy problems is like asking the telcos if they think the Internet should be free. They are incapable of thinking of alternate solutions such as described in this video.

I suspect there remains many practical problems and costs – but this is the type of thinking we need for mobile charging of electric vehicles. Charge your vehicle while it is moving or stuck in traffic – not static overnight charging at our homes. The entire roadway does not have to be converted – but only small sections sufficiently spaced to top up the car batteries every few miles. As I mentioned before it is an ideal solution for drive through banks and fast food restaurants. “Will that be fries with your charge?” It is also in line with our modern lifestyle and does not require a hair shirt approach to reducing CO2.


A must-watch---they’re busy developing a prototype.

http://www.consciousmedianetwork.com/video/2010/061810.htm

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The Economist: Making lighting more efficient could increase energy use, not decrease it

[Finally a reputable economics magazine is starting to get it – energy efficiency has nothing to do with reducing GHG emissions – and if fact will most likely increase GHG emissions. To reduce the GHG impact of lighting we need to change the source of energy from dirty fossil fuels to clean renewable energy – and not simply try to make them more energy efficient. A simple solution would be to mandate that all new LED lighting systems be powered solely by 400 Hz multiplex electrical systems that get their power solely from roof top mounted solar panels or micro wind mills. – BSA]

http://www.economist.com/node/16886228?story_id=16886228

Energy conservation
Not such a bright idea
Making lighting more efficient could increase energy use, not decrease it
Aug 26th 2010
Less is more
SOLID-STATE lighting, the latest idea to brighten up the world while saving the planet, promises illumination for a fraction of the energy used by incandescent or fluorescent bulbs. A win all round, then: lower electricity bills and (since lighting consumes 6.5% of the world’s energy supply) less climate-changing carbon dioxide belching from power stations.
Well, no. Not if history is any guide. Solid-state lamps, which use souped-up versions of the light-emitting diodes that shine from the faces of digital clocks and flash irritatingly on the front panels of audio and video equipment, will indeed make lighting better. But precedent suggests that this will serve merely to increase the demand for light. The consequence may not be just more light for the same amount of energy, but an actual increase in energy consumption, rather than the decrease hoped for by those promoting new forms of lighting.
[..]
That, at least, is the conclusion of a study published in the Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics by Jeff Tsao of Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico and his colleagues. They predict that the introduction of solid-state lighting could increase the consumption of light by a factor of ten within two decades.
To work out what solid-state lighting would do to the use of light by 2030, Dr Tsao and his colleagues made some assumptions about global economic output, the price of energy, the efficiency of the new technology and its cost. Assuming that, by 2030, solid-state lights will be about three times more efficient than fluorescent ones and that the price of electricity stays the same in real terms, the number of megalumen-hours consumed by the average person will, according to their model, rise tenfold, from 20 to 202. The amount of electricity needed to generate that light would more than double. Only if the price of electricity were to triple would the amount of electricity used to generate light start to fall by 2030.
Dr Tsao and his colleagues see no immediate end to this process by which improvements in the supply of light stimulate the desire for more—rather as the construction of that other environmental bête noire, roads, stimulates the growth of traffic.
[…]
It is worth remembering that when gas lights replaced candles and oil lamps in the 19th century, some newspapers reported that they were “glaring” and “dazzling white”. In fact, a gas jet of the time gave off about as much light as a 25 watt incandescent bulb does today. To modern eyes, that is well on the dim side. So, for those who truly wish to reduce the amount of energy expended on lighting the answer may not be to ban old-fashioned incandescent bulbs, as is the current trend, but to make them compulsory.


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Why energy efficiency is bad for the environment - example of the electric car

[It amazes and baffles me why so many eminent economists think energy efficiency is the answer to the global challenge of a warming planet. Energy efficiency, as a solution for global warming, violates all the basic principles we learned in Economics 101. Let me explain:

I believe it is a generally accepted principle that any increase in living standards comes only with an increase in productivity. Throughout history an increase in living standards has always resulted in an increase in energy consumption, because consumers can afford more physical good such as cars and appliances. They can eat also afford richer diets of meat and travel more.

Simply put, productivity means more units of output for every unit of input. Inputs are primarily made up of raw material, labour and energy. Outputs can be anything from physical goods such as automobiles to every day services such as hair cuts.

The electric car as being touted as one of the saviors from the environmental damage caused by the internal combustion engine. There is no question that an electric vehicle will consume far less energy than a traditional fossil fuel driven car. And pound for pound basis it will produce far less CO2, than today’s gas guzzlers, even if the electricity comes solely from coal fired power plants. So how can electric vehicles be bad for the environment??

Simple economics. The electric vehicle is an example of increased productivity through energy efficiency. Once car manufacturers reduce the cost of batteries as the industry scales up the electric car will far cheaper to run and operate than today’s vehicles. In terms of miles per Watt the electric vehicle is far more efficient than today’s automobiles. This means that many more millions of families around the world will now be able to afford a car for the first time in their lives. India’s Tata Nano is a great example of a low cost vehicle for the masses – but given the price of gasoline (and its pending shortage) the biggest cost of the Nano over its lifetime will be in its fuel consumption and not its capital cost. But imagine if the Tata was an electric vehicle – then that huge potential of fuel cost is eliminated.

The automobile is the standard bearer of an economy’s move from an agrarian to a modern industrial society. Electric vehicles will be especially attractive to countries which have to import most of their oil, as they can use their dirty coal plants to power the millions of electric vehicles.

So while energy efficiency through electric vehicles may reduce the overall CO2 emissions in rich industrialized nations (assuming there is a one to one replacement of gasoline powered cars with electric vehicles) its decreased cost will enable millions of more families in the developed world to buy cars. As a result the absolute volume of CO2 emissions will increase over time as most of the electric power for these vehicles will come from coal plants. As many of you know this phenomena of energy efficiency is called the Jevons paradox or the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate. Simply stated energy efficiency at the micro level paradoxically increases energy consumption at the macro level. Even if we implement a substantial carbon tax, the efficiencies of the electric vehicle will still make it affordable for many millions of families around the world to buy a car for the first time.

It is not only electric vehicles, but data centers, computers and host of other products and services where we see this phenomena at play. The narrow focus on energy efficiency in any particular field may save money for an individual or company, but the bottom line is that increased energy efficiency means increased productivity and ultimately greater affordability for millions around the world. As a result overall energy consumption will increase as millions more can afford these products and services. In turn, if most of this electricity comes from coal fired plants, the global volume of GHG emissions will invariably rise.

So what is the answer? Are we to throw are hands up in despair that there is no solution to climate change?

No. We have to rethink the problem. The biggest challenge facing the planet is not energy consumption, but the type of energy we consume. If all our energy came from renewable sources than any growth in demand for energy as a result of inevitable growth in productivity will not result in a concomitant increase of GHG emissions. So rather then designing products and services to be more energy efficient, we should instead focus on how these devices can operate using solely renewable energy.

The biggest challenge with renewable energy is its unreliability. Energy storage is part of the solution, as well continent spanning electrical grids. But, in addition, I believe we need a sustained research effort in designing products and services that can still be just as reliable as today, but powered solely by local renewable energy. In the Internet and computing world this is relatively easy – in Canada for example we are deploying the world’s first zero carbon Internet/cloud where all the computing and routing nodes are powered solely by local renewable resources. Again the significance of this approach is that GHG emissions will not increase as energy consumption increases when the network scales to meet growth in demand for new services.

In terms of the electric car I have proposed “mobile electric vehicle charging” as a solution where solar panel and windmills along the roadside or at drive through fast food restaurants are used to recharge vehicles as they drive by, or waiting in a queue at a traffic light or take out counter. Rather than using dirty electricity from the grid, this approach insures electric vehicles are powered only by renewable energy. Its also a technology that takes advantage of the North America drive through life style, as opposed to some other hair shirt approaches through environmental denialism. For more details please see http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2010/04/green-investment-opportunity-for-small.html

If we have any hope of addressing climate change we have got to start addressing the real problem – GHG emissions, not energy consumption. As quickly as possible we need to eliminate coal fired power stations and switch to renewable energy. But using renewable energy means rethinking our entire energy architecture. This not only entail changes at the production side with smart grids etc, but also changes at the consumption side in terms of devising solutions that can use such unreliable power.

Think carbon, not energy.




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Open Source solar powered GSM Cell phone system - ideal for university R&E MVNO networks

[I am working with a couple R&E networks that are looking at deploying their MVNO cell phone network integrated with campus WiFi facilities for data offload. This announcement open source, solar powered cell phone system will be a boom for R&E networks that want to utilize their fiber facilities and provide national (and international) cell phone services for researchers and students not available from traditional cell phone companies. No more usurious roaming and data charges. For more information please see my past blogs on building 5G networks—BSA]

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/083010-open-source-voip-cell-phones-at-burning-man.html

Today I bring you a story that has it all: a solar-powered, low-cost, open source cellular network that's revolutionizing coverage in underprivileged and off-grid spots. It uses VoIP yet works with existing cell phones. It has pedigreed founders. Best of all, it is part of the sex, drugs and art collectively known as Burning Man. Where do you want me to begin?
"We make GSM look like a wireless access point. We make it that simple," describes one of the project's three founders, Glenn Edens.
The technology starts with the "they-said-it-couldn't-be-done" open source software,OpenBTS. OpenBTS is built on Linux and distributed via the AGPLv3 license. When used with a software-defined radio such as the Universal Software Radio Peripheral (USRP), it presents a GSM air interface ("Um") to any standard GSM cell phone, with no modification whatsoever required of the phone. It uses open source Asterisk VoIP software as the PBX to connect calls, though it can be used with other soft switches, too. (More stats in a minute that I promise will blow away your inner network engineer.)
This is the third year its founders have decided to trial-by-fire the system by offering free cell phone service to the 50,000-ish attendees at Burning Man, which begins today in Black Rock City, Nevada. I've posted a few photos of the set-up here. But the project is still new and mostly unheard-of. The second-generation hardware is in beta and the project’s commercial start-up, Range Networks, won't emerge from stealth mode until September (at theDEMO conference).
Two of OpenBTS's three founders are a duo of wireless design gurus that make up Kestrel Signal Processing: David Burgess and Harvind Samra. The third is industry luminary Glenn Edens, the same Edens who founded Grid Systems, maker of the first laptop in the early ‘80s, who is also known as the former director of Sun Microsystem’s Laboratories (among his other credentials). He is Range Networks’ CEO.
Burning Man has become a brutal, but great test vehicle. "There are not too many places you can go where tens of thousands of people show up, all of them with cell phones, in a hostile physical environment – lots of heat and dust, with no power and no cell service," Edens says.
GSM operates on licensed bandwidth, so for any U.S. installation, the OpenBTS crew always obtains a FCC license and works with the local carrier to coordinate frequency use. When attendees get into range and power up their phones, the system sends them a text that says “Reply to this message with your phone number and you can send and receive text messages and make voice calls.”
Edens notes: "You can also make phone calls to any number, but you can’t receive them, except from other people at Burning Man. We don’t have a roaming agreement in place with any carriers yet. So calls from people out of range from Burning Man will go to voicemail … but you can check your voicemail." (You can follow the progress of the system setup onBurgess's blog).
Edens jokes that Kestrel gets an equal number of compliments and complaints for making cell phones accessible at the event. You win some and you lose some.
Certainly, the potential of OpenBTS is a winner. The system is only "as big as a shoebox," Edens says, and requires a mere 50 watts of power "instead of a couple of thousand" so it is easily supported by solar or wind power, or batteries. It performs as well as any other GSM base station which has a maximum range of 35 kilometers and a typical range of 20 kilometers, depending on geography, antennae height, etc.
It can use a wireless backhaul, too. "We’re working with UC Berkeley on a really interesting project on super long distance wireless backhaul. We can also use private microwave and all the usual backhaul technologies," Edens says. A full‐power base station with software costs around $10,000. Compare that to the typical $50,000 - $100,000 investment for base station controllers, mobile switching centers and "a whole lot of plumbing" to bring in power, backhaul, etc., in a traditional cellular network.
Like other GSM cell networks, OpenBTS networks can connect to the public switched network and the Internet. Because it converts to VoIP, it "makes every cell phone look like a SIP end point … and every cell phone looks like an IP device. But we don’t touch anything in the phone … any GSM phone will work, from a $15 refurbished cell phone all the way up to iPhones and Androids." Low cost phones are particularly important for projects in impoverished areas, where people can benefit most from better communications services.
"The UN and ITU studies show that when you bring communications services to an area, healthcare goes up, economic well being goes up, education goes up," Edens says, noting that costs and power needs are low enough that even a small earthquake, we sent a system that was installed at the main hospital in Port Au Prince. They had it working an hour after unpacking it from the box. The hospital PBX was down. They used it as their phone system for about two weeks."
Kestral has sold about 150 units, hardware and software, since last January, with trial systems installed in India, Africa, the South Pacific and a number of other countries. The team has also done a few private installations like oil fields, farms, and ships at sea. They are also providing a system to the Australian Base in Antarctica. Plus OpenBTS has been downloaded about 4,000 times, mostly by researchers able to build their own base stations. It is also of interest for military communications, law enforcement and DARPA projects.
[…]
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ITU-UNESCO - Broadband could eliminate CO2 equivalent to 50% of US coal plant emissions

[The Broadband commission is a joint effort of ITU and UNESCO. It is made up of some very prestigious folks such as Carlos Slim, John Chambers, heads of government etc. While the numbers they quote are impressive in terms of the impact of broadband in reducing GHG emissions, I still believe that the greatest benefit will be to use broadband as a key component of a cap and reward system. Cap and reward is an alternative to carbon taxes and/or cap and trade where consumers are provided credits in order to purchase low carbon products and services. For more details please see http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/ -- BSA]

http://www.broadbandcommission.org/media/stories/9-climate-change.pdf

The Broadband Commission for Digital Development believes that high-speed, high-capacity broadband connections to the Internet are an essential element in modern society, with wide economic and social benefits. Its mission is to promote the adoption of broadband-friendly practice and policies so that the entire world can take advantage of the benefits broadband can offer.
More specifically, the Broadband Commission wants to demonstrate that broadband networks:
• have the same level of importance as roads and electricity networks; they are basic infrastructure in a modern society;
• are uniquely powerful tools for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs);
• are remarkably cost-effective and offer an impressive return-on-investment (ROI) for both developed and developing economies;
• underpin all industrial sectors and increasingly are the foundation of public services and social progress
• must be coordinated nationally by governments in partnership with industry, in order too reap the full benefit of these powerful tools.

The establishment of the Broadband Commission in 2010 comes five years after the World Summit on the Information Society, and ten years after the launch of the Millennium Development Goals. Expanding broadband access in every country is the key way to accelerate attainment of those goals by the target date of 2015. The Broadband Commission will define practical ways in which countries — at all stages of development — can achieve this, in cooperation with the private sector.
The Commissioners represent governments from around the world, relevant industries, international agencies, and organizations concerned with development. Leaders in their field, they each present on this site a vision for a future based on broadband.

The Broadband Commission will report its findings to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in September 2010, immediately before the summit to be held in New York to review work on achieving the Millennium Development Goals by the target date of 2015. With only five years left before then, broadband networks are an essential and uniquely powerful tool for achieving those goals and lifting people out of poverty worldwide.

The initial outcomes of the Commission will take the form of two reports. Broadband: A Leadership Imperative, will be a concise, high-level report that directly reflects input from the Commissioners. Broadband: A Platform for Progress will be a comprehensive analytical report that looks at financing models, return on investment, technology choices, and strategies for deployment across a range of different types of economies.

Tackling the climate change challenge through broadband
“ICTs [information and communication technologies] are vital to confronting one of the biggest
problems we face as a planet: the threat of climate change” – Ban Ki-moon, United Nations
Secretary General, at ITU Telecom World 2009

It is now widely recognized that universal broadband networks have enormous potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that threaten dangerous global warming, as well as an important role in monitoring the impact of climate change and helping communities to adapt.

Estimates cited by the US National Broadband Plan suggest that broadband and ICTs could prevent more than a billion metric tons of US carbon emissions per year by 2020, equivalent to half the current total emissions of US coal-fired power stations. Similarly, the European Union’s Digital Agenda envisages a key role for broadband in meeting the EU’s commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions by a fifth by 2020 (from 1990 levels).

Broadband opportunities to combat climate change include:
• Smart grids, coupled with smart meters in homes and businesses, to manage electricity demand, boost network
efficiency and make it easy to integrate renewable energy sources.
• Smart buildings designed to minimize energy consumption (or power themselves), including systems to automatically
turn off lighting and appliances not in use.
• Smart motor systems to improve efficiency of industrial processes;
• Smart transport and logistics systems to cut energy use through better management of traffic and freight. One example: the global freight forwarding company UPS calculates it saved 3.1 million gallons of fuel in one year simply by plotting delivery routes that enabled its trucks to take advantage of ‘turn right on red’ US traffic laws and so reduce idling time.
• E-commerce, teleconferencing and teleworking to reduce transport and travel demands (and reduce the need to construct energy-consuming offices and shops). High-definition ‘telepresence’ systems are transforming videoconferencing and extending its applications. International analyst The Gartner Group estimates video ‘telepresence’
will replace over two million airline seats by 2012.
• ‘Dematerialization’ to replace physical objects – CDs, DVDs, books, newspapers, maps, paper invoices and documents – with virtual ones.

Collectively, such measures could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15%, five times the ICT industry’s own carbon footprint. Nevertheless, minimizing this footprint – which currently amounts to 2-3% of global emissions, around the same as the entire aviation industry – is also essential. Data centres already consume more electricity than countries like Argentina or the Netherlands. In a typical office building, ICTs may account for 40% of all energy consumed, the
second biggest energy drain after heating and cooling. As broadband becomes standard infrastructure, these figures could climb still higher.

Measures now being adopted include moving data centres to cooler locations or powering them with renewable energy, the adoption of a universal energy-efficient charger that fits all new mobile phone models – globally standardized by ITU in 2009 – and introduction of new technologies such as next generation networks (NGNs) that can cut emissions by 40%.

ITU is supporting these efforts by developing a common methodology for measuring the industry’s carbon footprint, and promoting more energy-efficient ICTs through standard setting. It is also ‘greening’ its own operations. In September 2009 ITU organized the first-ever virtual conference on ICTs and climate change, with more than 400 virtual participants and 19 experts speaking virtually from nine different locations. By 2012, says Dr Hamadoun Touré, ITU Secretary-General, the organization aims to be climate neutral.



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The Green data center market will be $40 billion by 2015

[When many people talk of data centers they usually think of the gargantuan facilities deployed by Google, Microsoft, Amazon and others. But the much larger market is the thousands of smaller data centers operated by governments, industry and universities. These are the ones that will be most affected by the rising cost of electricity and government programs to tax carbon. Lowering PUEs is only a stop-gap solution and does not address the insatiable demand for new ICT services. By some estimates data centers will consume 12% of all electricity in the US by 2020. Data centers are the heavy industry of the information age. This kind of energy consumption is neither sustainable or affordable. We need new data center architectures that use only renewable energy and are disconnected from the electrical grid, because even if the utilities provide green power, competitive pressures will make it as pricey or pricier than dirty electrical power. Building distributed data centers where the facility owns the power source such as micro hydro, windmills etc is the only answer. – BSA]

http://www.thegreenitreview.com/2010/08/green-data-centre-market-40bn-by-2015.html

If my comments on data centres yesterday were of interest then you might want to know that Pike Research has just released a report on green data centres.
The report points out that the evolution of the ‘green’ data centre is closely connected to other changes which all have an impact, including technical innovation, new design principles, operational improvement, changes to the relationship between IT and business and changes in the data centre supply chain.
[…]
The report forecasts that the revenue from green data centres will exceed $40bn worldwide by 2015. North America and Europe will lead the way in the short term, but the Asian market will catch up quickly as its data centre capacity grows.


The report identifies a number of trends shaping the market, including:
• While the industry has, in the past, indiscriminately built out new capacity to meet requirements, it is now being forced to consider the physical environment and natural resources on which it depended and the costs they represent.
• The trend over the next five years will be a move toward a total virtualisation of the data centre to deliver computer services from both public and private cloud models.
• As IT provision becomes more dynamic under the influence of virtualisation and cloud computing, so a more dynamic view of data centre infrastructure is emerging – flexible and adaptable.
• This new infrastructure environment will require more sophisticated management tools and a holistic view of the entire
ecosystem.
• The green agenda means that the data centre is part of a broader sustainability program and true cost must be made more visible.
• The cost of the data centre can only be fully assessed if both the resources it uses and the work it does can be measured. Work is being done to define an acceptable measure for the productivity of the data centre.
•
The report points out that the changes to data centres are inevitable, but the rate of change is hard to predict. In the case of data centres I believe that legislation will probably have the biggest impact.
There’s lots of activity to reduce energy use in business but in the case of data centres it tends to be one-off, quick wins. As IT use in business continues to expand (and is used to help reduce emissions elsewhere) there’s a need for longer-term measures that may only be dictated by legislation. For example the CRC cap-and-trade scheme in the UK is pulling in a lot of companies simply because of the energy used in their data centres. Companies stand to lose money and feel the impact on their reputation by such legislation.
© The Green IT Review


Why Data Centre Owners Want Carbon Laws Terminated:



http://www.eweekeurope.co.uk/comment/why-data-centre-owners-want-to-terminate-carbon-laws-8798

The relationship between technology and environmental sustainability is obviously more nuanced than popular culture would have us believe. The massive green elephant in the room is the whole rise of so-called clean technology and renewable energy - from wind turbines to hydrogen fuel cells - which are all dependent on new and innovative technology. Overhauling power grids and the way consumers monitor their energy use will save huge amounts of carbon. But this application of so-called smart meters and grids isn’t possible without upgrading existing infrastructure and rolling-out new technology. Counter-intuitively, to lessen the impact of tech on the environment we have to build more of it.
But another aspect to the complex relationship between the environment and technological progress is that technology - specifically IT - has the potential to not only become more sustainable through refinement but actually lessen the impact of other man-made activities. A power-efficient data centre which utilises renewable energy, such as the Other World Computing (OWC) facility in Woodstock Illinois, is not only inherently sustainable but the tools it could provide - email, web collaboration and video conferencing - replace the need for more carbon intensive activities such as air-travel.
The idea that IT can actually be an environmental force for good was raised this week by data centre specialist Migration Solutions. The organisation was voicing its concerns over the government’s recent energy policy which could see power costs rise by 40 percent for some businesses. If such price-rises came into effect, it might prompt some data centre operators to relocate their facilities to countries with more favourable energy policies, the organisation warned.
Migration Solutions along with other players in the data centre industry, are keen to point out the complex relationship between IT and the environment. Yes, data centres are heavy users of electricity and producers of carbon dioxide - a report to the US congress back in 2006 found that 1.5 percent of national electricity demand came from energy consumption of data centres. But crucially, they can also help reduce emissions in other areas. “Information Technology (IT) uses two percent of the country’s electricity but it also provides many of the solutions that will reduce our domestic power consumption and carbon emissions,” said Migration’s boss Alex Rabbetts
Carbon Reduction Commitment
Vendor industry groups such as Intellect want this contribution to overall sustainability to be recognised by the government. Specifically, the organisaton has a campaign underway to make data centre operators a special case under the recently introduced Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC). “The cross-sector energy efficiencies enabled by IT could deliver global emission savings of approximately 7.8 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2020 - equivalent to carbon savings five times larger than the total emissions from the entire IT sector, and to €600 billion of cost savings,” a recent Intellect report, Data Centres: The Backbone of the UK Economy, claims.
Whether the government will heed these claims is unclear. Specifically Intellect et al are pushing for a Carbon Change Agreement (CCA) as an answer and possible alternative to the strict rules laid down in the CRC. Given some of the anti-tech policies enacted by the coalition so far, it doesn’t seem likely that IT facilities will be given special dispensation.
At the end of the day it all depends on whether the powers-that-be can be persuaded to embrace the idea that IT could help to contribute to the goal it has set itself of becoming thegreenest government in UK history. Alternatively, they might just decide the claims made by Intellect and the data centre industry are just so much science-fiction.



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The sun never sets in the future of high performance computing and networking

[Great article that portends the future low carbon economy. Excerpts - BSA]

http://www.isgtw.org/?pid=1002668

When the sun sets on the Communications Research Centre in Ottawa, Canada, the solar-powered computational jobs might be sent across the high-speed connection to the Cybera data center in Calgary, where its still bright and sunny. And when the sun stops shining in Calgary, if the wind is blowing at the wind-powered BastionHost facility in Truro, Nova Scotia, then the jobs could be sent back east.

Most forms of renewable energy are not reliable at any given location. But Canadas Green Star Network aims to demonstrate that by allowing the computations to follow the renewable energy across a large, fast network, the footprint of high-throughput computing can be drastically reduced.

What we hope to explore at a high level is whether the concept has merit, said Martin Brooks, an independent research consultant working on the GSN; Brooks recently retired from the National Research Councils Institute for Information Technology.

If it is successful, said Brooks, the GSN will develop new methods for reducing the carbon footprint of computational resources, and develop a standard that will allow people to innovate in this area.

The advantages of GSNs approach go beyond those conferred by the use of renewable energy sources. Normally, once electricity is generated at large power plants, it must travel large distances via the power grid to reach the computers that power computational science. In the process, a great deal of power `is wasted, dissipated via the resistance of the power lines.

By using the energy where it is generated, the Green Star Networks data centers will also use less energy.

There will probably be some applications that its not appropriate to move, so there are some applications that are not appropriate for this sort of agile environment, Brooks said. The kind of applications that we expect to field will include server structures of different kinds, web servers and other ordinary internet services like that, and well also include some computation intensive nodes.

The key part of the project is the controller, that takes in information about computational load at each node and energy availability at each node and reallocates the computations to keep them running as the various nodes go up and down because of wind and solar variability, explained John Spence, a researcher emeritus at the Communications Research Centre Canada.

The controller will manage GSNs middleware, which leverages existing interoperability projects such as the Open Cloud Computing Interface and Network Service Interface. Interoperability is crucial to the GSN because international partnerships are crucial; in a network with nodes covering every time zone, the sun will always be shining somewhere.

Already, the GSN has formed associate partnerships with i2cat in Spain, HEAnet and NDRC in Ireland, IBBT in Belgium, and ESnet and
Calit2 in the United States.

The project is young, but making steady progress.

Once it is up and running, the GeoChronos science gateway will be among the first to try it out.





Related articles:

Reducing the ICT Sectors Carbon Footprint (pdf), by Andrew Mackarel, HEAnet Program Manager

Case study: The GeoChronos web portal, by Miriam Boon, iSGTW

Miriam Boon, iSGTW

Globe and Mail-- Canadian researchers hope to green the web and make Canada the world's web server

[Here is an excellent article on the Greenstar project and the significant economic opportunity of using renewable energy to power the world’s Internet servers. Rather than shipping our raw power to the US, Canada should be using it as a leverage to create a low carbon economy. Iceland and Norway have national initiatives along these lines and Quebec has recently announced a $60m Green ICT program. In Iceland for example a startup is establishing Green Cloud that maps directly to Amazon EC2 – BSA]

Canadian researchers hope to green the web and make Canada the world's web server http://bit.ly/9qIWIX
“Interconnected data centers powered by wind, sun, could drastically reduce IT carbon footprints…”

Iceland Greenqloud
http://www.greenbang.com/icelandic-startup-aims-to-deliver-first-green-computing-cloud_14384.html

Computers and ICT in Australia account for 8% energy consumption - education biggest contributor

[Here is an excellent report by the computer association of Australia measuring the impact of computing and ICT on Australia’s carbon footprint. One of the notable factoids is that education and training sector is the largest contributor to this energy consumption and CO2 emissions. I believe this once again confirms the critical leadership role that R&E networks and institutions must play in helping reduce a nation’s carbon footprint and energy consumption. Overall the growth of ICT energy consumption is about 6% per year and probably even faster in the education and training sector. With this growth rate the energy consumption of ICT will double within a decade!! This is unsustainable. The use of ICT in education and training is probably the one sector where more adaptable and flexible solutions can be developed that are powered solely by renewable energy –BSA]




Carbon and Computers in Australia - Full Report [PDF - 1.42MB]
http://www.acs.org.au/attachments/ICFACSV4100412.pdf



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New sources of funding (>$24 Billion) for researchers from carbon and cleantech funds

[University researchers around the world are going to have to start to realize that funding from traditional sources such as funding councils and granting agencies will most likely decline over the coming years as governments face huge financial burdens as a result of last year’s financial crisis. A major new source of funding for research including, cyber-infrastructure, R&E networks and IT will have to come from the burgeoning climate and clean tech funds. Most of these programs earn their revenue are from a surtax on gasoline, coal or other large CO2 emissions. As a result their funding base is independent of the fickleness of government finances. As the threat of climate change becomes more real it is likely that these funds will grow significantly, as it is only through innovation do we have the faintest hope of addressing the biggest challenge facing this planet today.

Unfortunately most of this funds research is currently focused on energy research and carbon sequestration. Few yet recognize the importance of IT in reducing GHG emissions. The only exception is Quebec – with its recent announcement of $60 million for Green IT research.

I am working closely with various groups around the world such CAL-IT2 at UCSD, PROMPTinc ClimateCheck , CSA and others to help educate the administrators of these funds on the importance of funding IT research, cyber-infrastructure and networks. More importantly researchers and cyber-infrastructure providers need to understand that any application for funding must go through a much rigorous analysis in terms of the benefits of the research to reducing GHG emissions. Simple hand waving exercises on energy efficiency will not be sufficient as often is the case with traditional research proposals. Understanding how to genuinely reduce carbon, GHG protocols and the standards process will be essential if a researcher or research institution hopes to tap into these funds.

For more details on how to receive funding from these programs please see my NYSERnet presentation:
http://www.slideshare.net/bstarn/nysernet-july-28

--Excerpts from Andy Revkin article in NY tomes BSA]

Filling the Global Energy Research Gap
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/filling-the-global-energy-research-gap/
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency released a batch of new findings and reports as its contribution to the Obama administration’s “Clean Energy Ministerial” meeting in Washington. In any case, a more important analysis was the agency’s fresh look at trends in government support for research, development and demonstration of low-carbon energy technologies and ways for countries to collaborate to accelerate energy innovation.
The report describes how India, despite its poverty, has moved ahead with an initiative for raising money for energy research that the United States — thanks to a lack of leadership, congressional polarization and fear of anything remotely resembling a tax — has so far been unable to do: India has created a National Clean Energy Fund for research and innovation financed by a levy of $1.10 (U.S.) per metric ton of mined or imported coal. It’s a very modest fee that has created hundreds of millions of dollars to stimulate Indian research and testing of promising technologies.
I think that, particularly with presidential leadership, there could be more than 60 Democrats and Republicans in the Senate who could get behind the case for fueling an American energy quest this way, or with a directed 2-cent-per-gallon nudge to the gasoline tax, which alone would triple our research budget compared to the pre-stimulus level.
Here’s an excerpt and link to the full report:
The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 called for a clean energy revolution to address global energy security, energy access and environmental challenges. The recently released Energy Technology Perspectives 2010confirms that the transition has begun to a low-carbon economy. The past decade has seen an investment surge in clean energy technologies as governments made bold commitments to fund LCETs.
The 2008-09 green stimulus spending announcements were welcome increases in public RD&D, but is seems they are largely one-time commitments. Further, some governments are backing away from their stimulus spending announcements, and industry is reducing its investments. This is particularly worrisome as clean energy technologies continue to cost more, on an unsubsidized basis, than traditional fossil-based technologies and it is unlikely that a global price on CO2 will be settled in the near future. A great deal more must be done to bridge the gap between the estimated $10 billion in annual pre-stimulus spending and $40 billion to $90 billion needed to achieve sustainable energy goals


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Organizing research and teaching at universities to address the grand challenges of sustainability

[An excellent article by the president of Arizona State University on the need for universities to fundamentally re-organize themselves to address the global challenges of sustainability and climate change. The institutions that are at the forefront of the science behind climate change, are surprisingly very slow in adapting their organizational structure and operations to deal with this imminent threat. It amazes me how few people at our universities appreciate the real and present danger of run away global warming. Even a 1C or 2C average temperature increase is going to have dramatic effects on society and economy as noted in the recent National Research Council report: “Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations.” As the Nobel prize winning columnist Paul Krugman noted that the although there still remains a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change, there is a small probability of catastrophic outcomes for this planet. “Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. ”

As I have long argued the low hanging fruit for organizational change at universities is with cyber-infrastructure, networks and clouds. Computers, networks and HPC systems constitute a significant portion of the energy consumption at many universities. We have the solutions in hand to eliminate the huge carbon footprint of cyber-infrastructure and to enhance the quality of science that can be done with such facilities. Universities and R&E networks, to my mind, should be at the forefront of organizational change to deal with the challenges of climate change. For more thinking along this line please see the following paper in Educause Review written by myself, Larry Smarr, Tom Defanti and Jerry Sheehan “Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World”

Organizing Teaching and Research to Address the Grand Challenges of Sustainable Development
http://president.asu.edu/sites/default/files/BioScience%20Article%20070110%20Organizing%20to%20Address%20Grand%20Challenges%20Sustainable%20Dev.pdf

National Research Council
Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12877

Climate Change and Higher Education
“Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World”
http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERM0960.pdf

More on revenue opportunities for R&E and open access networks - building next generation "5G" wireless network http://bit.ly/dck1kR
New revenue opportunities for R&E networks in helping universities reduce their energy costs http://bit.ly/dqvN70
Cloud helps universities reduce costs by 74% - more clouds reduce energy costs http://bit.ly/c5mT58
Cloud computing breakthru! CENIC & PNWGP have connected 10G lightpaths to Amazon compute & storage, OOI CI early user http://bit.ly/aG0a06
EEE Green House Gas standards for 5G networks and Green ICThttp://bit.ly/bqYNyN
CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY
Amazon joins Top500 supercomputer list with its Cluster Compute service ... http://bit.ly/99zipE
What A Price on Carbon Would Cost University Data Center Operatorshttp://bit.ly/9AOZzH
Moving beyond cyber-infrastructure - greening and moving HPC into the cloud http://bit.ly/bNGrXy
Industry and universities must prepare for next Y2K - "CO2K"http://bit.ly/9UMpMo
OECD recommends that basic research in ICT should be supported through carbon offset mechanismshttp://bit.ly/a8VhNk
Enabling Innovation with next generation wireless 5G Internet + clouds - technical details http://bit.ly/c3iZsZ3:18 PM Apr 25th via web
85% of research computing can be done using cloudshttp://bit.ly/cC1eQ7
The Rise of Research-driven Cloud Computing http://bit.ly/bA9YjL
More on building a 5G wireless mobile R&E green networkhttp://bit.ly/a5zQFL



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The green telecoms market is expected to be worth $122 billion by 2014

[Here is more evidence that going green is going to be a huge business opportunity for the telecoms market. But many companies and researchers are still focused on energy efficiency instead of moving to the next stage of building low carbon solutions that are largely powered by renewable energy. More importantly these solutions must be developed in line with GHG protocol standards otherwise they will have limited value. Many Fortune 500 companies and large institutions like universities will have new SEC and EPA regulatory requirements to have auditable and verifiable GHG emission reductions. Simple hand waving arguments using vendors supposed claims about energy efficiency will not be enough – BSA}

http://www.thegreenitreview.com/2010/07/green-telecoms-market-is-expected-to-be.html

Pike Research has released a report, called Green Telecoms Networks, which looks at green telecoms initiatives worldwide - the opportunities, technology requirements and environmental impact.
The report focuses on the direct impact of green technologies and practices on telecoms networks and reaches the headline conclusion that green telecom network infrastructure investments will be worth $122bn by 2014, representing over 46% of telecoms capital expenditure worldwide. Of that, 63% of the investments will be for mobile networks.

The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the capex spending by 2014, followed by Europe. Global emissions reductions by then (compared with doing nothing) are estimated at 24%, with a 46% reduction from mobile networks.
Mobile networks, base stations and switching centres will be a focus since they can consume 70%-80% of an operator’s network energy usage. Whilst the use of renewable energy solutions continue to face ROI issue because of their initial cost, as business cases move to a total cost of ownership (TCO) model their implementation becomes more attractive. Pike Research predicts that renewable energy will power 4.5% of the world’s mobile base stations by 2014, up from just 0.11% in 2010. The figure will be higher – 8% - in developing countries.
Fixed networks have declining subscriber numbers, and hence costs, so are less of a concern. Nevertheless, emissions reductions of 15% are still expected by 2014 from technology improvements at the component/board level.
Pike Research also points out that there are lots of opportunities for both fixed and mobile network operators to reduce emissions from data centres, both in the design of the facilities and in the IT itself, through server consolidation and virtualisation, for example.


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Cloud helps universities reduce costs by 74% - more clouds reduce energy costs

[Here are several good articles on how clouds reduce costs and energy consumption at universities. Surprisingly nobody yet has developed the associated GHG standards to allow universities, or their service provider, to claim additional savings or revenue. Almost every university has a “green” department who are struggling to find ways to reduce the carbon footprint of their campus – and yet right next door the IT department probably has some low hanging fruit in reducing carbon by adapting clouds. GHG standards are necessary, not to earn offsets, but to have a verifiable and auditable standard that can help the university meet its GHG goals --BSA]

CLOUD HELPS UNIVERSITIES CUT COSTS BY 74 PER CENT

Cloud Helps Universities Cut Costs By 74%
http://www.hpcinthecloud.com/news/Cloud-Helps-Universities-Cut-Costs-By-74-98743334.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Queensland University of Australia was among the first of a host of institutions to provide enterprise software to the university system via the cloud in the region. According to officials at the institution, this has allowed all of the universities that took part in their program to extend software beyond the in-house machines in a scalable fashion while cutting costs across the board. Since universities typically need to invest in everything required to keep IT running for students, including software licenses, hardware (including servers and backup) and a large staff to maintain these systems, making the switch to the cloud is a worthwhile investment of time and effort on the part of universities.

http://www.futuregov.asia/articles/2010/jul/19/cloud-helps-universities-cut-costs-74-cent/
Queensland University of Technology in Australia leveraged cloud computing to provide enterprise software to more than 140 universities in Asia Pacific. Glenn Stewart, Professor of Information Systems revealed how the university dramatically reduced costs while it enjoyed greater assurance and scaleability.
Stewart heads the SAP University Competence Centre (UCC) which provides, on a non-profit basis, an SAPsuite of business software to over 800 academics and 42,000 students from 140 universities in Asia Pacific and Japan.
If an individual university was to run the software without the help of the UCC, it needs to invest in hardware, as well as recruit and train specialised staff. “Servers and backup facilities could easily bring the start up cost to A$200,000 (US$173,000). Replacement and recurring staff cost would be another A$150,000 (US$130,000) per year,” said Stewart. This would be a major obstacle for any university looking to use the enterprise software to support teaching.
The introduction of the UCC in 2000 allowed universities to pay A$30,000 (US$26,000) for the use of software on five clients, and now, by migrating the services into a private cloud, each university pays A$7800 (US$6760) for that same package, which is more than 74 per cent reduction in cost.
“Virtualisation and cloud computing has enabled QUT to host the needs of many universities. Individual institutions do not need to buy hardware, hire and train people, and manage all that. There has been significant cost savings for all institutions involved,” observed Dr Robert LoBue, Vice President, Global University Alliances, SAP.
QUT started to move its services into the private cloud last October (2009). Today, it has finalised 80 per cent of its migration, and expects to complete 95 per cent by the end of this year.
The decision to use cloud technology was straight-forward, said Stewart. “In 2005, we started to deliver our services using virtualisation. We would have needed over A$1million (US$866,900) of hardware, but that helped cut it down by half. Still, it did not provide the scaleability we desired. Cloud computing halted our capital expenditure and moved that into operational expenditure. We are now able to provide services on demand, and provide the lowest cost of service to the universities we serve.”
The key benefit of putting services on to the cloud is the ability to scale, according to LoBue. “At the end of 2008, there were 44 universities in the programme. Slightly over a year later, we have extended services to 140 education institutions,” he added.
[…]
Open Source Energy Savings
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/01/energy-management-software-technology-cio-network-condor.html?boxes=Homepagechannels

Any large company that wants to save energy by turning computers on and off automatically should consider Condor. With commercial solutions that do the same costing hundreds of thousands of dollars at large installations, Condor is clearly worth a look.

Condor is a hybrid example of high-quality, community-built software. Since the project started in 1988 at the University of Wisconsin, the code for Condor was viewable under an odd proprietary license. This did not retard the use and community improvement of the software, which has become robust over years and has been deployed on millions of computers. Condor supports all the operating systems a typical company or research institution would have and is rock solid in terms of stability and functions for its intended purpose, which is carving up work and sending it out to any number of computers for processing.

Now, following the path of so many other open source projects, companies including Red Hat and Cycle Computing are transforming Condor into a product. Condor allows large numbers of computers, whether servers, desktops or engineering workstations, to be used as a massive high-performance or high-throughput computing facility.
"Condor enables open and cost-effective high throughput computing to environments scaling up to 30,000 processors," says Jason Stowe, CEO of Cycle Computing, which offers support and management tools for Condor.

Condor's expansion toward power management is just one example of the way that the functional footprint of open source is rapidly expanding. Cycle Computing combines Condor and Hadoop, which allows file systems to be provisioned by farms of computers, to create cloud-like capabilities from internal resources. By adding cloud servers to the mix, the size of the computing environment can expand and contract as needed.

Paul Cormier, president of products and technologies at Red Hat, is working on combining a large collection of open source projects into a cloud provisioning and management suite. "The move to cloud computing as the next generation architecture has only been possible by integrating many of these open source projects, such as Condor," says Cormier. "It is only natural that the software for creating and managing these virtual environments come from the world of open source as well."

Greening the grid: Purdue turns server pool into power management hub
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/green/greening-the-grid-purdue-turns-server-pool-into-power-management-hub/12886
This post starts as a throwback to the utility and grid computing applications that used to dominate headlines.

The high-performance grid in question is Purdue University’s DiaGrid, which aggregates the idle compute power of 28,000 processors at the university and on campuses in Indiana, Kentucky and Wisconsin. What initially started as a project mainly focused on effective resource utilization has, over time, has become a potential method for harvesting energy across the connected systems, says John Campbell, associate vice president at Purdue’s Rosen Center for Advanced Computing. What makes this possible is the Condor and CycleServer management tools from Cycle Computing.

The directive is pretty simple at the university, which is trying to eke every available dollar out of the workstations and academic computers across the high-performance computing cluster, which are typically idle between midnight and 7 a.m. “Either join Condor or turn off your machine at night to conserve power,” Campbell says. Eventually, they won’t won’t have to make that decision: the software will automate a shutdown of idle machines.

To get a sense of the impact that DiaGrid has had on the Purdue IT budget, Campbell notes that if the university was forced to replace the computing cycles that the grid coordinates, it would have to spend roughly $3 million in new hardware, not to mention all the power required to run those new systems. The power discussion has grown louder in the past two years, Campbell says, as the campus seeks to get the most utilization out of every watt of power consumed. That conversation has inspired other universities to join the DiaGrid project.

Jason Stowe, CEO and founder of Cycle Computing, says many of the company’s clients — which include the likes of JP Morgan Chase, Lockheed Martin, Eli Lilly and Pfizer — are looking at how high-performance technical computing clusters can play a role in managing power management costs. While the power savings potentially might not be enormous, grid utility applications can play a key role in making sure a company’s existing power draw is used as effectively as possible.

“Rather than buying new machines and more data center space, these technologies can help them make better use of what they have and let them power down nodes that are no longer in use,” Stowe says.


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IEEE Green House Gas standards for 5G networks and Green ICT

[The attached e-mail is very exciting news. As I have mentioned several time in past postings we have to move from a focus on energy efficiency to one on zero carbon using renewable energy solely to power our networks, data centers and other ICT infrastructure. This announcement by IEEE is a right step in that direction -- BSA]

Hi Bill,
I thought you might be interested in the email below from IEEE Standards Association. If you think it is merited, please share it with your audience regarding GHG standards and renewable power. I've added some more information about the standards portal and ClimateCHECK's work with green data centre GHG standardization.
The IEEE P1595 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Standard project will use a new online standards development platform developed by ClimateCHECK, in association with the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI), the worlds largest community of GHG experts. The online standards platform provides global accessibility for experts to collaborate in authoring documents online, with the functionality to track edits, comments, balloting, as well as task management and reporting. The accessibility of the online tools, coupled with purpose built standards development functionality is designed to enable greater productivity of experts with the objective of saving time and costs while maintaining high quality. The process governance functionality, which is flexible to incorporate standards templates and procedures from different standards initiatives, provides transparency and additional credibility to the work of the standards developers.
IEEE GHG standards are relevant to 5G Networks and Green IT because the standards will be useful for data centre design, engineers and CFOs in the business case and provides the methodologies to support green power claims. ClimateCHECK will use the standards portal as part of benchmarking and performance work with McGill University and UCSD supercomputing centre to create GHG metrics. Using ClimateCHECKs online collaborative solution, subject matter experts and stakeholders can more effectively design green standards and standards-based quantitative green metrics to help transition from qualitative green claims. These tools and approach will benefit all the stakeholders in the business decision making process and provide competitive advantage to green product vendors.
Best, Tom
-----Original Message-----
From: IEEE Standards Association [mailto:ieee-sa-exec@ieee.org]
Sent: July-12-10 10:02 AM
To: tb@climate-check.com
Subject: Call for Participation for P1595(TM) Working Group
IEEE CALLS FOR PARTICIPATION TO DEVELOP STANDARDS FOR QUANTIFYING GHG EMISSIONS FROM SMALL HYDRO AND WIND POWER PROJECTS, AND GRID BASELINE CONDITIONS

The IEEE Standards Association announced a call for participation for the IEEE P1595(TM) Working Group to help develop new standards for quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emission credits from small hydro and wind power projects and for grid baseline conditions. The IEEE P1595 Working Group is part of the Climate Change Technology Sub-Committee (CCTSC) of the Energy Development and Power Generation Committee (EDPGC) of the IEEE Power and Energy Society (IEEE-PES).
The IEEE P1595 standard will use protocols for wind power, small hydro and grid baseline developed by the Government of Canadas Department of Natural Resources - CANMET Energy Technology Centre (NRCan-CETC) as its seed documents. These protocols were developed in accordance with the ISO 14064 Part 2 International Standard for GHG Projects, which is used by regulated carbon offset credit markets such as in the Province of Alberta and in the Province of British Columbia. ISO 14064 Part 2 has also been adopted by the Voluntary Carbon Standard (www.v-c-s.org ).
The IEEE P1595 working group will be working in cooperation with the ClimateCHECK, a collaborative solutions provider in the GHG and clean technology markets. The IEEE P1595 working group will be utilizing ClimateCHECKs online standards development platform, which was developed in association with the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI).
Those interested in joining the IEEE P1595 Working Group or for more information, please contact the P1595 Working Group Chair Jim McConnach at jsmcconnach@ieee.org, phone 1-705 645 5524 or CCTSC Chair Tom Baumann at tb@climate-check.com, phone number +1 613 795 1158.
For more see: http://ieeestandards.org/ct.html?rtr=on&s=8nv,1e8t4,2xny,d9np,g3tu,isdz,3wwy
Also the P1595 Working Group will be meeting at the IEEE-PES 2010 General Meeting in Minneapolis, July 25 to 29 see: http://ewh.ieee.org/conf/pesgm10/
*******
IEEE Standards Association
445 Hoes Lane
Piscataway, NJ 08854
To unsubscribe, send an email to: unsubscribe-136942@ with the address: tb@climate-check.com in the subject line.


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CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina

[Here is a great article on the dramatic growth of energy consumption and concomitant CO2 emissions from US data centers. Amazingly the CO2 emissions from US data centers now exceeds the aggregate of all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina – and still growing dramatically. While I agree with the author that data center manager should set up a carbon management consortium, the easiest and most cost effective solution to reducing carbon foot print is to locate data centers where there is renewable energy. It is a national disgrace that NCAR and NSA are building their new data centers in Wyoming and Utah respectively, which will be powered solely by coal generated electrify. Moving these facilities a few hundred kilometers west to Idaho will do more to reduce CO2 emissions than all he combined energy efficiency strategies possible. Data center managers also have to learn about developing carbon offset protocols such as ISO 14064. Companies like ClimateCheck (www.climate-check.com) and Canadian Standards Association (www.csa.ca) are developing standards for data centers, clouds and ICT so that they can earn revenue if they reduce their carbon footprint – BSA]

http://www.hpcwire.com/features/The-Coming-C-Change-in-Datacenters-96420844.html


The Coming 'C' Change in Datacenters
by Edward J. Lucente, Vice President of Business Development, Data Center Rebates, Inc.
________________________________________
Recently, I was at the Uptime Institute in New York and had several conversations about carbon dioxide (CO2) management for datacenters. Energy consumed by US datacenters in 2010 will reach 3 percent of overall US energy production. This will double in about five years given that the annual growth in datacenter energy consumption is 10 percent. Increases in datacenter CO2 emissions should mirror energy consumption increases since most datacenters will be unable to convert to greener, cleaner, renewable energy sources.
The good folks at the Uptime Institute estimate that datacenter CO2 emissions willquadruple between 2010 and 2020; also that annual global datacenter CO2 emissions are already on par with the CO2 emissions of the airline industry, or even entire countries. Maybe we should put datacenters in airplanes and keep all the CO2 flying around.
Annual CO2 emission comparisons (Mt = thousands of metric tons)

US datacenters 170 Mt
Argentina 142 Mt
Netherlands 146 Mt
Malaysia 178 Mt
The IT professionals that I spoke with are becoming familiar with their datacenters' "carbon footprint." They understand that by managing CO2 emissions they will be better prepared for existing or future greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations. (GHG also includes water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone.)
Also, I noticed that a number of application software companies have sprouted up to promote carbon management information systems that deal with issues around CO2 compliance standards, CO2 inventory baselining, and financial management of carbon allowances and credits. Certainly, innovative application solutions will be needed to help datacenter professionals and executives navigate through CO2 management challenges associated with:
• Compliance.
• Conservation.
• Complexity.
• Cost.
• Competitiveness.
The federal government will be among the early adopters of carbon management software. The US federal government's demand for carbon management software is expected to grow from its current level of $36 million to $294 million by 2017, according to a new report by Pike Research.

US Legislation

In the United States, government regulations concerning CO2 include the EPA's GHG Reporting Rule and the pending Kerry-Lieberman bill, known as "cap and trade." Under the EPA's GHG Reporting Rule, suppliers of fossil fuels or industrial greenhouse gases, manufacturers of vehicles and engines, and facilities that emit 25,000 metric tons or more per year of GHG emissions are required to submit annual reports to EPA. This would include the largest datacenters, and there is a concern that over time this floor of 25,000 metric tons would be reduced by government. Currently, over a dozen US states are contesting this new EPA law in court, so stay tuned.
The passage of the Kerry-Lieberman bill in 2010 is less certain, especially now with the oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico, but it is potentially far reaching. If passed, it would require many businesses to measure, monitor, or manage GHG offsets, abatement projects, GHG sources, GHG reporting, carbon prices, and various protocols. This could be a nightmare for datacenter professionals. Just the bill's preamble scares me, especially the "for other purposes" language:
To secure the energy future of the United States, to provide incentives for the domestic production of clean energy technology, to achieve meaningful pollution reductions, to create jobs, and for other purposes.
Call for Action

I tend to believe that government mandates are less efficient delivery mechanisms than programs developed through private industry and self-regulation; what concerns me is that I have not seen the IT industry take a more proactive, self-regulatory role with regard to managing and minimizing CO2 emissions. Consider these questions:
• Why should the IT industry wait around for government standards on CO2 emissions?

• Shouldn't datacenter professionals control and develop their own CO2 management information systems since they understand best their unique IT and business environments?

• Why wouldn't a CEO, Corporate Sustainability Officer (CSO), Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) executive, or CIO want to take more control of their destiny?
As mentioned, IT shops can choose from various application solutions and turn to energy efficiency consultants for additional guidance. Datacenters that reduce their CO2 emissions will also reduce their energy bills (OpEx) and total cost of ownership.
I suggest, therefore, that the IT industry create its own "carbon efficiency consortium" to establish carbon management information standards and solutions aimed at reducing CO2 emissions in datacenters. This would be an industry-led, self-regulatory body that provides thought leadership on CO2 management and shares best practices and recommendations for carbon management.
My bet is that datacenter professionals who develop internal management information systems for carbon management now will achieve significant cost savings ahead of their competitors. It's not just about a greener planet; it's about building a sustainable and competitive IT and industry advantage.
About the Author

Edward J. Lucente is vice president of business development at Data Center Rebates, Inc., an IT efficiency consultancy based in Carlsbad, Calif., whose professional services focus on datacenter energy efficiency (DCEE), leasing integrated with technology refreshes, and negotiation of IT energy rebates. Please feel free to email comments toed.lucente@datacenterrebates.com.


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Quebec to invest $60 million in Green ICT for future low carbon economy

[Kudos to the Quebec Government in this bold strategy. This investment combined with Quebec’s abundance of clean energy will make Quebec a global powerhouse in the future low carbon economy. Special credit must be given to the Quebec based organizations PROMPTinc (www.promptinc.org) and the Greenstar project (http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/) for their global leadership in this field.—BSA]


http://www.mdeie.gouv.qc.ca/index.php?id=6884

“Ecolo TIC” (Ecology ITC)

A proposed $ 60 million which consists of structuring a partnership between government and business leaders in this field. This project enable the development and demonstration of new products or systems that promote the reduction of consumption energy or the development of other systems have a positive effect on the environment.


This initiative, which aims to share the risk with the companies in the ICT sector, will leverage the strengths of Quebec, including the centers private research centers, research and public research groups, universities and SMEs, whose work will contribute to specific projects. It will create a pool of world-class expertise in the niche of green ICT, where innovation technology and maximize commercial benefits go hand in hand.

The government will invest $ 30 million over three years. The contribution of the private sector will be $ 30 million for the same period.


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Internet2 and NOAA Partner To Provide New High Capacity National Research Network for Climate Research

Internet2 and NOAA Partner To Provide New High Capacity National Research
Network

New NWave Network To Support 80 Terabytes of Climate Research Data Per Day

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – July 13, 2010 - Internet2 and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today announced a partnership to deploy a
highly reliable, high capacity nationwide network that will serve to
significantly enhance the capabilities of NOAA’s researchers and their
partners across the country.

Funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), the new
high capacity research network called "NWave” will be built on a set of
10-Gigabit per second dedicated waves on the national Internet2 Network. The
network waves will be used to provide dedicated, high speed, and high
capacity connection between climate and weather researchers and NOAA’s key
high performance computing sites across the nation.

Climate scientists around the country leverage these HPC resources to
understand, predict, and explain changes in climate. This is accomplished by
developing and applying state-of-the-art, computationally intensive coupled
climate models for advancing climate research, predicting climate from weeks
to decades, and projecting future climate out to several centuries. These
climate predictions and projections are expected to generate approximately 80
terabytes of data per day to support decision makers regionally to globally
with timely and authoritative information. NWave provides the critical high
capacity network links that can support these large data flows between sites
as well as provide the capabilities to allow NOAA scientists the ability to
easily share computational resources with the U.S. Department of Energy and
other U.S. government agencies.

“NOAA is world leader in understanding and predicting the earth’s environment
through its global network of observations, advanced modeling, and weather
and climate research,” said Joe Klimavicz, CIO and director of high
performance computing and communications at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration. “This new high speed research network will
greatly increase our ability to transparently access large volumes of higher
resolution and more complex climate and weather analyses, predictions and
projections.“

“The Internet2 community is excited to be an enabler of NOAA’s critical
climate and weather research. The Internet2 Network will connect researchers
across the country to the high-performance computing resources that are an
absolute requirement for the kinds of distributed, collaborative
environmental observations and analyses that will unleash the next wave of
discoveries about our natural world,” said Rob Vietzke, Internet2 executive
director of network services.

NWave will be backed by the operational expertise of the Indiana University
Global Research Network Operations Center (GRNOC), which will provide
24x7x365 professional network support as it does for the Internet2 Network
and other advanced research and education networks in the country.

ABOUT INTERNET2

Internet2 is an advanced networking consortium led by the research and
education community. An exceptional partnership spanning U.S. and
international institutions who are leaders in the worlds of research,
academia, industry and government, Internet2 is developing breakthrough
cyberinfrastructure technologies that support the most exacting applications
of today—and spark the most essential innovations of tomorrow. Led by its
members and focused on their current and future networking needs since 1996,
Internet2 blends its human, IP and optical networks to develop and deploy
revolutionary Internet technologies. Activating the same partnerships that
produced today’s Internet, our community is forging the Internet of the
future. For more information, see http://www.internet2.edu.

ABOUT NOAA

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the
depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our
coastal and marine resources. For more information, visit
http://www.noaa.gov.

Contact;
Lauren Rotman
202 331 5345
lauren@internet2.edu

###

More on energy efficiency versus building a low carbon economy

[Further to my last post here are some pointers on the debate of energy efficiency versus low carbon architectures. While energy efficiency may save an organization money, very rarely does energy efficiency translate into reduced GHG emissions at the utilities coal fired powered plant. Instead it allows the utilities to reduce operation of their more expensive gas plants or to limit the importation of expensive hydro electric power. Coal fired plants are most cost effective when they operate at 100% utilization which is aided and abetted by utility’s energy efficiency programs.

I particularly like the quote from the recent ITIF report on Debunking the Myths of Climate Change “Incidentally, although energy efficiency technologies and measures are certainly an important part of attaining a lower carbon footprint, in reality these are short-run, stop-gap solutions. If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about 25 percent of GHG emissions. To make matters worse, the “low hanging fruit” will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts.”

If we are truly concerned about climate change we need to adopt policies that truly reduce GHG emissions. This is why any proposed “green” solution needs to be developed as a GHG standard accepted by various GHG registries according to the ISO 14064 standard. This applies to any proposed research project as well .Only then will any claim of being green can be independently verified as reducing GHG emissions. Although this process is much harder than energy efficiency hand waving, it will genuinely result in real low carbon solutions. The intellectual challenge of building low carbon solutions is much harder than most of the lazy thinking associated with energy efficiency – but on the upside the outcomes can generate real investment, jobs and economic growth.

In my opinion there are two rules of thumb to building solutions for a low carbon economy:
(1) They must use renewable power sources only in order to de-couple energy production from GHG emissions
(2) They must not involve electric utilities or the grid

For examples of some ideas on products and services for a low carbon economy please see my presentation to National Research Council:

http://www.slideshare.net/bstarn/nrc-july-6
--BSA]






Debunking the Myths of Global Climate Change

http://theenergycollective.com/darrenehackler/38789/debunking-myths-global-climate-change?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=The+Energy+Collective+(all+posts)&utm_content=Twitter


Numerous advocacy groups, scholars, think tanks and others have proposed a variety of steps to address global warming based on a set of assumptions about the green economy. Yet, while we need to take bold action to address climate change, much of what passes for conventional wisdom in this space is in fact either wrong or significantly exaggerated.

In our recent report, “Ten Myths of Addressing Global Warming and the Green Economy,” ITIF explains how the debate on policy responses to climate change is fueled by an array of myths, ranging from assumptions that high carbon taxes will generate needed clean innovations to the belief the U.S. is the natural leader in the clean energy sector. If we are to effectively address climate change and at the same time become globally competitive in the clean energy industry, policies need to be guided by careful and reasoned analysis.

Perhaps the most prevalent myth is that carbon taxes or a cap-and-trade regime alone will drive significant GHG reductions and save the planet. The current neoclassical economics-inspired solution focuses on pricing carbon and letting markets work. Proponents have faith that increasing the price of carbon will induce behavior change. But this will only happen when there is a viable and affordable substitute. Adherence to this entrenched myth overlooks the fact that radical innovation in the energy sector is essential to the transformation in how we produce and consume energy in the future. Our strategy must be based on innovation to make the dent we have to make in our greenhouse gas production.
And, by the way, cap and trade–the darling of the moment–isn’t a globally sustainable option. It’s a myth that developing nations can afford to pay a premium for low-carbon energy when they are having trouble enough with providing the basics of food and shelter. The conventional policy response is that the United States (and Europe) should either bribe poor nations with massive clean development aid so they can afford more expensive clean energy, or we should penalize them with border adjustable carbon taxes. And neither option comes for free since the United States would need to increase taxpayer-financed aid subsidies to meet developing countries clean energy demand. The end result is that U.S. taxpayers would pay twice in a global cap-and-trade regime—once for their own consumption and once for developing nations’. The only globally sustainable option is the creation of affordable (read “grid parity”) clean energy for all nations.

The reality, however, is that we don’t have the technology we need to make needed reductions in global GHG emissions at a price at or below the price of fossil fuels—no matter what advocates like former vice president Al Gore say. This notion plays into the policy advice that suggests we just need to raise the price of coal and oil a bit, and technology will fly from the shelf and into the market. This ignores a fundamental truth that the needed breakthroughs in clean energy face daunting challenges, including lowering materials and processing costs, improving conversion efficiencies, and gaining better manufacturing yields. Moreover, clean energy innovators recover only a portion of the benefits their technologies produce. Most companies prefer to “free ride” off existing dirtier technologies, making the rational business decision to under invest in fundamentally new green technologies. To spur the technology we need, government must step in, incentivize basic R&D and propel these technologies through the “valley of death” – the phase in the development of technologies between research and commercial introduction in the marketplace.

Incidentally, although energy efficiency technologies and measures are certainly an important part of attaining a lower carbon footprint, in reality these are short-run, stop-gap solutions. If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about 25 percent of GHG emissions. To make matters worse, the “low hanging fruit” will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts. To reduce our GHG emissions by 85 percent by 2050, we need radical innovation to provide clean energy alternatives, rather than just using carbon-based fuels a bit more efficiently.




•
• China Fears Warming Effects of Consumer Wants
• http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/05/business/global/05warm.html


GUANGZHOU, China — Premier Wen Jiabao has promised to use an “iron hand” this summer to make his nation more energy efficient.


But even as Beijing imposes the world’s most rigorous national energy campaign, the effort is being overwhelmed by the billionfold demands of Chinese consumers.
Chinese and Western energy experts worry that China’s energy challenge could become the world’s problem — possibly dooming any international efforts to place meaningful limits on global warming.
If China cannot meet its own energy-efficiency targets, the chances of avoiding widespread environmental damage from rising temperatures “are very close to zero,” said Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency in Paris.
Aspiring to a more Western standard of living, in many cases with the government’s encouragement, China’s population, 1.3 billion strong, is clamoring for more and bigger cars, for electricity-dependent home appliances and for more creature comforts like air-conditioned shopping malls.
As a result, China is actually becoming even less energy efficient. And because most of its energy is still produced by burning fossil fuels, China’s emission of carbon dioxide — a so-called greenhouse gas — is growing worse. This past winter and spring showed the largest six-month increase in tonnage ever by a single country.
China’s goal has been to reduce energy consumption per unit of economic output by 20 percent this year compared with 2005, and to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases per unit of economic output by 40 to 45 percent in 2020 compared with 2005.
But even if China can make the promised improvements, the International Energy Agency now projects that China’s emissions of energy-related greenhouse gases will grow more than the rest of the world’s combined increase by 2020. China, with one-fifth of the world’s population, is now on track to represent more than a quarter of humanity’s energy-related greenhouse-gas emissions.
Industry by industry, energy demand in China is increasing so fast that the broader efficiency targets are becoming harder to hit.
¶Although China has passed the United States in the average efficiency of its coal-fired power plants, demand for electricity is so voracious that China last year built new coal-fired plants with a total capacity greater than all existing power plants in New York State.
¶While China has imposed lighting efficiency standards on new buildings and is drafting similar standards for household appliances, construction of apartment and office buildings proceeds at a frenzied pace. And rural sales of refrigerators, washing machines and other large household appliances more than doubled in the past year in response to government subsidies aimed at helping 700 million peasants afford modern amenities.
¶As the economy becomes more reliant on domestic demand instead of exports, growth is shifting toward energy-hungry steel and cement production and away from light industries like toys and apparel.




Obama's Energy Pipe Dreams
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/21/obama-s-energy-pipe-dreams.html


… we won't soon end our "addiction to fossil fuels." Oil, coal, and natural gas supply about 85 percent of America's energy needs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects energy consumption to grow only an average of 0.5 percent annually from 2008 to 2035, but that's still a 14 percent cumulative increase. Fossil-fuel usage would increase slightly in 2035, and its share would still account for 78 percent of the total.

Unless we shut down the economy, we need fossil fuels. More efficient light bulbs, energy-saving appliances, cars with higher gas mileage may all dampen energy use. But offsetting these savings will be more people (391 million vs. 305 million), more households (147 million vs. 113 million), more vehicles (297 million vs. 231 million) and a bigger economy (almost double in size). Although wind, solar, and biomass are assumed to grow as much as 10 times faster than overall energy use, they provide only 11 percent of supply in 2035, up from 5 percent in 2008.

"Clean energy" won't displace oil or achieve huge reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions—for example, the 83 percent cut by 2050 from 2005 levels included in last year's House climate-change legislation. Barring major technological advances (say, low-cost "carbon capture" to pump CO2 into the ground) or an implausibly massive shift to nuclear power, this simply won't happen. It's a pipe dream. In the EIA's "reference case" projection, CO2 emissions in 2035 are 8.7 percent higher than in 2008.


A good overview of the challenges of building a low carbon infrastructure
http://www.withouthotair.com/download.html
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