ICT research funded by GHG emission reduction program in Quebec

[Once again Quebec is a world leader in understanding the critical role that ICT can play in helping reduce ICT emissions.

Free Lunch: Exploiting Renewable Energy For Computing

[This is an excellent paper on how locating cloud computing facilities at renewable energy sites can significantly reduce the cost of computing at our universities and businesses.

Energy Efficiency Gains at Home being defeated by growth of electronic gadgets

[This is one of many reasons why I have argued that ICT energy efficiency is not sufficient. The growth in usage of computer gadgets will dwarf any gains in energy efficiency.

Australia gets it right: carbon pricing, national broadband, eResearch, Green IT research

[These days Australia seems to be firing on all cylinders and demonstrating true political leadership on a number of fronts from carbon pricing, deploying national broadband, through to  eResearch and more recently announcing the worlds’ largest Green IT research center.

Universities and R&E networks are sitting on a gold mine - the real value of IPv4 addresses

[There has been a lot of buzz in the press about the recent news of Nortel selling some of its address space to Microsoft for $7.5m which works out to $11.25 per IP address.

A new look at an old idea: Powering autos from the grid

http://goo.gl/zPHWW

Electricity that powers electric motors is the best replacement for fossil fuels that power internal combustion engines. As discussed in my lastpost, connecting to the grid while in motion is the best means of powering electric vehicles.

Relocating data centers to colder climates can reduce costs by up to 75%

[At the recent On*vector workshop in San Diego, Dallas Thorton of the San Diego Computer Center (SDSC) gave an excellent presentation on the CANARIE funded UCSD-McGill project looking at the overall cost savings by relocating a facility like the SDSC to Canada.

Smackdown: climate science vs. climate economics and impact on Internet

[Here is an excellent article that puts in stark perspective the challenges we face with future global warming.

Must read: Solar powered Wifi and Data Centers - real world examples

[Here is an excellent web site and presentation on building solar powered data centers and wide area WiFi networks.

Design principles for building networks to survive global warming

[I continue to be amazed at how little attention is being paid by network engineers on adapting to the severe challenges of global warming.

Some innovative clean energy solutions that bypass deadend thinking of energy efficiency

[For those who read my blog know that I keep harping about the fact that the pursuit of energy efficiency in its own right as a “green” strategy is an intellectual dead end.

Why Energy needs to be Free to reduce CO2 and the Falsehood of Energy Efficiency

[There has been a spate of good articles on the falsehood of energy efficiency in terms of reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions.

How California suburban sprawl could be the answer to global warming

[California suburban sprawl has always been seen as an environmentalist’s nightmare, and many believe it is unsustainable as we move to a low carbon economy. However I believe that paradoxically the suburban lifestyle may be a partial solution to addressing the challenge of global warming.

eScience and Community based open source climate modelling

[Ian Foster has just posted an excellent slide deck on the importance of building open source climate models.

How R&E networks can help universities save millions of dollars and reduce CO2

[While I was at CANARIE we had commissioned 3 independent studies to look at how building remote and/or efficient data centers could save universities money through energy savings and the use of carbon offsets.

How to attract green data centers and clouds to your province or state

[Over the past couple of years I have undertaken a couple of studies on behalf of clients in Canada and internationally looking at the requirements to attract data centers and/or cloud infrastructure to their respective town, province or state.

Undersea cable networks-observatories can play critical role in climate change and sea level rises

[There have been several good articles lately about the challenge of rising sea levels due to climate change.

EU launches €4.5bn research program using carbon offsets

[Another good example of how carbon offsets and/or taxes can used to fund green research projects.

Why carbon offsets/taxes should be used to fund Green IT research and cyber-infrastructure

[The failure of the US congress to pass a cap and trade system may be a blessing in disguise. There is a growing recognition amongst policy makers and environmentalists that we need alternate approaches in addition to traditional cap and trade programs to address the looming catastrophe of global warming. The challenge with cap and trade programs is that they are predicated upon making carbon-based energy more expensive in order to incentivize the deployment of clean energy alternatives. But forced to choose between enforcing emissions caps or keeping energy prices low and economic growth high, policymakers find ways to circumvent emissions caps and minimize economic impacts upon consumers and businesses. The result is that cap and trade systems around the world have only had marginal impact on reducing GHG emissions compared to the business as usual case. Rather than wasting billions of dollars on dubious national cap and trade systems policy makers are now focusing on stimulating innovation and diffusion of non-polluting energy technology.

A proposal called “Post Partisan Power” by the Brookings Institution, the Breakthrough Institute and the American Enterprise Institute recommend the establishment $5 billion program of regional, focused energy innovation institutes involving universities, government researchers and private industry and investors. The proponents of the initiative suggest that money would come from a portion of oil and gas leases, a small fee on imported oil and small surcharge on electricity sales and/or a very small carbon price. But given the political realities of Washington and Ottawa I suspect the funding for such an initiative will have to come from provincial and state cap and trade programs such as WCI, RGGI, etc . Unfortunately, at the moment these regional cap and trade programs are only focusing on the trading of offsets and not using any of the funds to underwrite research.

However, a study by the Canadian Conference Board in Canada on the various GHG mitigation programs in Canada demonstrated that funding green research out of carbon offsets or carbon taxes had the biggest bang for the buck in terms of reducing GHG emissions and creating jobs as well as new businesses. The OECD also recently made a recommendation along these lines as well.

Although ICT currently represents only 2-3% of global GHG emissions and 7-9% of electrical energy consumption its growth rate is dramatic at 6% per year. If this growth rate continues by 2030 ICT could consume, by various estimates anywhere from 20-40% of global electrical consumption and corresponding GHG emissions.

According to data from the Australian Computer Society the education/research sector is by far the largest component of this ICT energy consumption and GHG emissions.

In my opinion it is therefore critical that education and research community, and by extension the research and education networks (who are likely to provide the most effective solutions) should be eligible for some of this research funding. The higher education sector, in particular, should be at the forefront of looking for new solutions to address climate change.


Additional information can be found at:

Real-World Steps on Energy and CO2
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/25/real-world-steps-on-energy-and-co2/

California can lead nation on carbon cutbacks
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/10/31/3144391/state-can-lead-nation-on-carbon.html#ixzz14QMkKH1r

Conference Board of Canada report on benefits of using carbon offsets to fund research
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2010/05/must-read-why-network-and-computing-r.html

OECD recommendations on using offsets to fund Green IT research
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2010/04/oecd-recommends-that-basic-research-in.html

How research and educational institutions can provide national leadership in reducing CO2
http://www.slideshare.net/bstarn/surf-utrecht-nov-10




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Moving data is a lot easier and cheaper than moving energy

[An excellent overview and summary of the Greenstar project – which is the world’s first cloud/Internet build solely using renewable energy resources. Rather than bringing expensive energy to data centers why not move the data centers to where the energy is located? Two large commercial data center/cloud operators are part of this project. Since many renewable energy resources are unpredictable and unreliable compute and data jobs are moved from node to node depending on availability of energy. A number of next generation Internet technologies such as NSI, OpenFlow, Hadoop, etc allow this easy migration of data and computing. This type of architecture is ideal for 5G wireless networks where multiple overlapping nodes powered solely by renewable energy and connected to fiber networks such as WiFi, WhitFi, mesh and traditional 3g/4g . At any one time at least one of the nodes will likely have sufficient renewable power and can provide service for a given coverage area. – BSA]

http://www.itincanada.ca/index.php?cid=400&id=13459

www.greenstarnetwork.com


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European Research Program - ICT, the engine for sustainable growth in a low carbon economy

[Kudos to European Commission for next ICT Research Program 2011-2012. One of the3 major focuses of the program will be ICT research for “sustainable growth in low carbon economy”. I am pleased to see that the EU distinguishes between energy efficiency and reduction of CO2 emissions – as the two are often not related. The only thing missing from the program is research into low carbon ICT products and services. Given that ICT will consume anywhere from 15-40% of all electricity by 2030, reducing the impact of ICT, in its own right, should be a number one priority. Also, as recommended by OECD and others funding for carbon reduction programs should come from carbon offset or carbon tax programs – as this will result in far greater return then simply trading of offsets – BSA]

ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/ict-wp-2011-12_en.pdf
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/

2.1 ICT, the engine for sustainable growth in a low carbon economy
A recent OECD report4 highlighted that "investment in a networked recovery will preserve
ICT as a key engine of growth" given its impact on productivity and innovation across
manufacturing and service sectors. This is now set out in the ‘Europe 2020’ strategy5 and
notably in its ‘Digital Agenda for Europe’ flagship initiative6.
The ICT sector has been identified as a potential major player in the fight against climate
change

This Challenge explores how ICT can contribute to delivering a sustainable, low carbon
society and help progress towards the Europe 2020 targets on climate and energy. ICT can
assist in reshaping the demand side of our energy-dependant society, reducing energy
consumption, and subsequently CO2 emissions, in particular in electricity distribution,
buildings and construction, transport and logistics, the public sector, rural areas and cities.

The Challenge focuses on the following:
Future electricity distribution grids applying seamless communications systems to
increase the connectivity, management, automation and coordination between suppliers
(including renewable sources), consumers and networks;
Energy efficient design and decision support tools optimizing the energy performance
during systems development and operation (e.g. modelling, simulation and planning,
enterprise management systems, data centres);
Water management, including demand-side management, integrated water resource
management frameworks and comprehensive decision support systems;
Energy-efficient buildings, neighbourhoods as well as urban and rural areas improving the
buildings construction cycle, improving the use of energy beyond buildings, advancing
complex urban systems, and optimising the dynamics of energy supply and demand in
neighbourhoods and extended urban and rural communities. This research will contribute
to the Energy-Efficient Buildings Public-Private-Partnership launched in 2008 as part of
the European Economic Recovery Plan;
ICT for low-carbon multi-modal freight and logistics covering technologies and services
for multi-modal freight and logistics as well as ICT for clean and efficient multi-modal
mobility for further improving energy efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions in all modes
of transport for passengers and goods;
Cooperative Systems for low-carbon multi-modal mobility covering cooperative
applications and services for energy efficiency and eco-friendly mobility as well as a
European Wide Service Platform (EWSP) for services leveraging those cooperative
systems;
ICT for fully electric vehicles advancing the development and integration of major
building blocks of the Full Electric Vehicle (FEV), and integrating the FEV with
infrastructures. Projects supported under this objective will contribute to the European
Green Cars Initiative, a Public-Private-Partnership launched in 2008 as part of the
European Economic Recovery Plan.
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Quebec - PROMPT world leadership extending zero carbon Internet Greenstar to China and California

[Quebec has been leading the world in funding research in Green ICT in their new $60 million Green ICT research program. They are one of the few jurisdictions that understand funding Green IT research may have most bang for buck in creating jobs and economic growth and reducing CO2. PROMPT Inc and Quebec government also understands critical difference between reducing CO2 through zero carbon strategy versus questionable energy efficiency. You may also have read that many Quebec citizens are very much against developing the new recently discovered shale gas and oil deposits within that province because of the environmental impact. Quite a contrast to the rest of the world – where “drill, baby drill” is still the ongoing mantra despite all the evidence that climate catastrophe is coming much sooner than expected – BSA]

Charting a Global Course in Clean, Green Technology: Prompt Bolsters Québec’s International Leadership in Green ICT by Establishing New Partnerships with China and California, Creating a World of Opportunity for Innovators

Press Release

MONTREAL, Québec, October 13, 2010 – Prompt, Québec’s premier ICT R&D consortia, is pleased to announce new strategic partnerships with China and California that will help to bolster Québec’s global leadership in Green ICT, and create new R&D and business opportunities for researchers and companies in Québec and across Canada. These include:
• The engagement of the Shanghai Research Center for Wireless Communications (WiCO) of China in the GreenStar Network (GSN), a CANARIE-funded initiative led by École de technologie supérieure (ÉTS) that aims to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) emerging from ICT-based services. WiCO’s participation in GSN further evolves this pan-Canadian consortium into a broader global R&D initiative.
• A commitment to connect the GreenLight Project (an energy efficient computer processing initiative led by the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology or Calit2) and the GreenStar Network, enabling researchers in Canada and California to access a broader array of tools, technologies and testbeds at a distance, and collaborate on the development of Green ICT solutions. This was one of several outcomes emerging from the first strategic planning meeting on the development of a proposed Canada-California Green ICT R&D consortium.
These outcomes mark important progress on the implementation of Prompt’s Green ICT Strategy. By delivering on key objectives with international partners, Prompt is further leveraging provincial and federal funds, and helping to create a global Green ICT community of interest with greater critical mass. This collaborative approach is required to fully realize the global potential of Green ICT – from the reduction of more than 1 billion metric tons of carbon to $800 billion in projected worldwide annual energy cost savings by 2020. It will also deliver economic benefits to local researchers and companies in Québec and across Canada, facilitating access to new global R&D expertise, investment, and markets.

To review the complete Prompt press release:
» Read the full release - http://promptinc.org/documents/Prompt_Green_ICT_PR_eng.pdf
» Download the backgrounder (PDF) - http://promptinc.org/documents/Backgrounder_Prompt_Green_ICT_PR_eng.pdf
» Download the Green ICT Strategy document (PDF) - http://promptinc.org/documents/Prompt_Green_ICT_Focus_Paper_October2010.PDF
For additional information, please contact:
Sonya Shorey
Communications Strategist
Cell: 613.851.9416
sonyashorey@rogers.com


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Energy costs in network can be greater than energy savings in the cloud

[Excellent paper by J. Baliga and Rod Tucker that shows focusing on energy consumption of “green” data centers may be misleading. Data transfer over a routed network could be significant component of the overall power consumption. Optical networks of course a much smaller energy footprint than routed networks. Of course if the routing and computing nodes are powered by renewable energy then the CO2 footprint is very small (although overall energy consumption may be in fact higher) –BSA]

http://www.hpcinthecloud.com/news/Lost-in-Transport-Why-Cloud-Isnt-Always-the-Greenest-Option-104702039.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Researchers from the University of Melbourne in Australia have come to the conclusion that cloud computing is not always the greenest option on the storage and processing as well as the software level. This research examined the issue in both the public and private cloud context in comparison to the energy consumption used for the same tasks on a local system.
The authors argued that most studies seeking an answer to a similar question about the “green” nature of the cloud have only looked at the datacenter’s energy consumption and have thus failed to include the important issue of energy use during data transfer. They suggest that the transport of data to and from datacenters, particularly since public cloud center might be a continent away, uses quite a bit more energy overall than simply storing data locally.
PhysOrg.com reported that, “for cloud processing services (in which a server such as Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud processes large computational tasks only and smaller tasks are processed on the user’s computer) the researchers again found that the cloud alternative can use lower consumption only under certain conditions.” This is because “the large number of router hops required on the public Internet greatly increases the energy consumption in transport, and private cloud processing requires significantly fewer routers.”
The leader of the research project, Rod Tucker, told PhysOrg.com that when one is using the cloud for data storage (for instance on Amazon’s Simple Storage platform) cloud uses less energy than typical computing, but only when that service is used infrequently and not in a high-performance context since data transport energy use is minimal.
While the study focused on more garden variety processors and systems common for desktop users, this research might lend some insight to larger enterprise centers that are reliant on the cloud for some or all of their business operations. While many enterprise users might look at their bottom line before analyzing their overall carbon footprint, a study on the large enterprise scale that takes data transfer into account to offer a “green” score for a company might be a good idea.
Making the process of data transport more energy efficient needs to become a priority, but luckily there are incentives to do so. While the end user might not be bearing much of the cost of inefficient data transfer consumptions, it is in the best interest of cloud providers, who must remain competitive via pricing models, to constantly improve this critical aspect of their datacenters.
The research from the University of Melbourne will be published soon from Jayant Baliga and colleagues. The paper is called “Green Cloud Computing: Balancing Energy in Processing, Storage and Transport” and will be published in the journal Proceedings of the IEEE.

http://people.eng.unimelb.edu.au/rtucker/publications/files/Baliga_Ayre_Hinton_Tucker_JRLStrTrans.pdf


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Must read - The Climate Fix - why carbon taxes/offsets should be used to fund research

[I have been an enthusiastic follow of Roger Pielke, Jr’s blog and his recently published book “The Climate Fix”. He is one of the few climate policy researchers that understands the challenges of energy consumption versus CO2 emissions. Given the projected huge growth of GHG emissions from IT, a number one priority should be funding research on the demand side in low carbon/zero carbon IT (as opposed to Green IT which is largely focused on energy consumption). This was also a recommendation by OECD ICCP committee last year. My only enhancement to his arguments is the use of a “cap and reward” program instead of a carbon tax to pay for the research – BSA]


http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/10/interview-with-houston-chronicle.html
Roger Pielke Jr., a climate policy analyst, has a new book out called The Climate Fix in which he argues several points:

1) Science has sufficiently made the case that climate change is a significant threat that requires action.

2) Neither the public nor politicians will accept economic contraction for the purpose of reducing carbon emissions.

This he calls the "iron law of climate policy," and from my reading the book supports this notion pretty well.

3) Cap-and-trade increases the cost of energy and therefore violates the iron law. Furthermore the cap-and-trade-style program envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol has not worked to accelerate carbon emission reductions in Europe.

4) There simply aren't good policy options now available to address climate change, and there haven't been since the problem was identified.

5) Modern energy technology falls far short of what's needed to address climate change.

6) The best potential solution is a slight tax on carbon that would be all but unnoticeable to the public but would generate billions of dollars for much-needed research into alternative energy resources, technologies such as batteries and carbon sequestration.

Overall the book provides a good explanation of why cap-and-trade policies probably will fail on a global scale, and does an very nice job of outlining the magnitude of the challenge of decarbonization. It is enormous in the face of rising energy demand.
Have a look,


For more information http://green-broadband.blogspot.com

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ICTs in the home account for almost 50% of energy use

[This follows on similar data from the International Energy Agency, that in many western homes energy use from ICT exceeds that of traditional appliances. ICT should be the one technology in which we can stop the inexorable growth of energy consumption and attendant GHG emissions. But more energy efficiency is not the answer. We need to get all ICT equipment off the grid. Most of the energy consumption of ICT in the home is the power draw when the equipment is in standby mode or for plug in chargers. This low level power demand could easily be provisioned through 400 Hz multiplex power delivered from small roof top solar panels and/or micro windmills. When a device needs more power for full operational mode it can easily switch to drawing power from the mains. Today’s power consumption from ICT is also one reason why Smart meter programs have been such a failure – BSA]

http://e360.yale.edu/digest/us_home_energy_use_as_high_as_in_1970s_despite_advances/2618/
e360 digest

30 SEP 2010: U.S. HOME ENERGY USE
AS HIGH AS IN 1970S, DESPITE ADVANCES
The average American household uses the same amount of energy it did in the early 1970s, despite significant improvements in the efficiency of household appliances, according to a report in theWashington Post. Even though appliances such as dishwashers and refrigerators now use half the amount of energy that they did several decades ago, average household energy use has remained the same because houses have been getting bigger and because they now contain more power-hungry devices, such as computers, flat-screen televisions, video games, and digital video recorders. One sign of that growing demand from computers, TVs, and other gadgets is that while electricity accounted for 23 percent of an average household’s energy use in 1978, it now accounts for 42 percent, according to the Post. Even though household energy use has essentially remained flat for the past 40 years, the number of households has increased significantly as the U.S. population has grown from 203 million in 1970 to nearly 310 million today, pushing up overall energy use.

For more information
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/

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Threshold for dangerous climate change closer than believed?

[Readers interested in this subject should also see the TED talk about the West Antarctica Ice Shelf (WAIS). The WAIS sits on ground that is below sea level and so if the warming seas get underneath the ice sheet it could break up very fast. New evidence indicates this could start to happen if the planet warms up more than 1C. We have already warmed up the planet .8C Must view: Scary stuff- Discovering ancient climates in oceans and ice - http://bit.ly/96Fnyz

The fact that ICT now accounts for almost 42% of energy consumption in US homes and projections by the IEA that ICT could consume 40% of the world’s electricity by 2030 means we in the ICT industry have to do something before we become the new climate villains. This is unsustainable and needs to be stopped. ICT is the one industry that has the “smarts” and is used to moving at Internet speeds with easy access to VC money. We need to act now.


--BSA]


http://www.cejournal.net/?p=4054

Threshold for dangerous climate change closer than believed?
Recent research suggests current target for limiting global warming is actually unsafe

The overarching goal for international climate policy is to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees C over pre-industrial levels. Beyond that threshold, climate scientists have believed, lies dangerous climate change, including sea level rise that could inundate major cities.
But a study published in the September issue of the Journal of Quaternary Science suggests that the threshold may be lower than 2° C. (Click for a press release on the research.)
“The results here are quite startling and, importantly, they suggest sea levels will rise significantly higher than anticipated and that stabilizing global average temperatures at 2˚C above pre-industrial levels may not be considered a ’safe’ target as envisaged by the European Union and others,” says study co-author Chris Turney of the University of Exeter in the U.K. (quoted in a press release).
This isn’t the first suggestion that targets for preventing dangerous climate change have been set too high. Based on research into ancient climates, James Hansen, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and a group of colleagues, have made a similar argument:
If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that.
Current emissions targets are supposed to help achieve the goal spelled out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed by 192 nations in 1992: avoid “dangerous interference with the climate system.” But what exactly is the threshold of danger?
As I wrote in a post back on December 17th, 2009, the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, concluded with high confidence that an increase in the global mean temperature of more than 2 degrees C above the long-term average would lead to widespread losses in biodiversity, declining productivity of agriculture globally, and a “commitment” to widespread de-glaciation of Greenland’s ice sheets (and thus a significant rise in sea level). With medium confidence, the report concluded that such a temperature increase would lead to de-glaciation of West Antarctica’s ice sheets as well.
Based on this, 16 developed and developing nations that account for about 80 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions agreed at the 2009 G8 Summit, in July 2009 that an increase in the global mean temperature of more than 2 degrees C above the long-term average would put the world at substantial risk of dangerous climate change.
To avoid that unhappy outcome, climate policy makers have been trying to forge an agreement to keep CO2 concentrations from rising above 450 parts per million, which is considered necessary for limiting global warming to no more than 2 degrees C.
Like James Hansen and his colleagues, Turney believes his new research shows this won’t be nearly good enough.
He and his co-author analyzed a set of global data on climatic conditions during the last interglacial period, which lasted from approximately 130,000 to 116,000 years ago. Like the current geologic period, the last interglacial was marked by relatively warm conditions and a retreat of glaciers and ice sheets. The analysis suggests that at that time, global temperatures were about 1.9°C higher than pre-industrial levels.
Most significantly, with temperatures just a little shy of 2°C higher than pre-industrial times, sea level was 6.6 meters to 9.4 meters higher than it is today, and it rose at double the rate being observed now. A sea level rise of that degree would swamp many coastal cities, affecting many tens of millions of people.
“The inevitable conclusion is emission targets will have to be lowered further still,” Turney concludes.

For more information please see
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/

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Overview of Carbon Accounting for Green IT

[One of the big challenges we face in the Green IT industry is all the wild and exaggerated claims about the “greenness” of various products and services. As I have blogged many times most people confuse reduction in energy consumption with being green. The real problem facing the planet is not energy consumption but GHG emissions – so it is critically we measure the real objective in any product or service that claims to be green –its actual carbon footprint. Energy reduction or efficiency in many situations can be counter productive and actually increase GHG emissions.

The Canadian Standards Association (CSA), one of the world’s largest standards organizations is developing globally recognized GHG standards based on the ISO 14064 to develop verifiable and auditable measurements of GHG reduction from the use of ICT. This will help quantify whether claims of lower PUE, virtualization or clouds actually do reduce GHG.

They have kindly me allowed to publish the following overview of Carbon Accounting for Green IT. For those who have a genuine interest in moving beyond green washing and help reduce the GHG impact of ICT I suggest you contact the authors listed at the end of this presentation – BSA]

http://www.slideshare.net/bstarn/overview-carbonaccountingprotocol-v1

For more information on this item please visit my blog at
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/ or http://billstarnaud.blogspot.com
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IT to consume 40% of world's electricity by 2030

[At Network World IT roadmap Federic Chanfrau, Senior VP of IT at Schneider Electric pointed out some interesting projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the IEA, if IT power consumption continues to grow 15% per year it will represent 40% of all global electrical consumption by 2030. Even if this growth rate is assume to be overly optimistic and we use the SMART 2020 forecast of 6% per year it still represents a staggering growth of doubling every 10 years in energy consumption and concomitant CO2 emissions.

An illustrative example of this staggering growth rate in ICT, again according to the IEA, is that fact that ICT represents the biggest energy consumption in many modern western home due to the aggregate electrical power draw from ICT devices such as flat screen TVs, computers, set top boxes, chargers, etc. This aggregate load exceeds the energy consumption of tradition appliances such as stoves, refrigerators, dish washers, etc. What is more astounding that energy consumption from ICT in our homes was virtually non-existent a decade ago.

We simply cannot let the ICT industry become the new bad boy of environmental GHG emissions. Our industry must immediately take steps to stop this unsustainable growth in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. And if we have any hope of reducing GHG emissions globally we must take immediate steps to make ICT products and services zero carbon.

Energy efficiency will not do it. A simple math calculation shows that we would need impossible gains in efficiency of 50-70% year over year over year on all new ICT products and services just to keep energy consumption emissions constant to what they are today. We must move beyond energy efficiency and look at building zero carbon solutions where all ICT equipment is powered by renewable energy sources only. We already have many good examples of how this can be done which I have blogged about in previous posts. – BSA]

https://www.eiseverywhere.com/file_uploads/fc2e1a5cac349cb69baa4fee4f656697_ITR_Dallas_Keynote_-_Frederic_Chanfrau_Schneider_Electric.pdf

For more information please see
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/

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Why Energy Efficiency Does not Decrease Energy Consumption

[Great article on this subject forwarded by Andy Revkin of NYtimes. As I have said many times, the problem facing the planet is not energy consumption – it is the type of energy consume. It is the dirty coal plants emitting CO2 that is one of the major cause of global warming. We need smart ICTs not solely to focus on energy efficiency but to allow us to use ONLY clean energy. Many countries plan to have at least 30-40% of their energy come renewable sources. The challenge with clean energy is its unpredictability and unreliability. Part of the solution is on the supply side through energy storage and large DC grids. But we also have to address the demand side by developing products and services that can function using only renewable energy with all of its attendant problems of unpredictability. Keeping dirty coal plants on standby power in the advent of lack of power from windmills and solar panels is not a solution when these energy sources are not providing power. So when we talk about smart grids, electric vehicles, smart buildings, etc we should be more concerned about how we power these facilities ONLY with renewable energy. This is a much greater intellectual challenge then simple reducing energy consumption. – BSA]

http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2010/09/why_energy_efficiency_does_not.shtml
Why Energy Efficiency Does not Decrease Energy Consumption

By Harry Saunders

I recently co-authored an article for the Journal of Physics ("Solid-state lighting: an energy-economics perspective" by Jeff Tsao, Harry Saunders, Randy Creighton, Mike Coltrin, Jerry Simmon, August 19, 2010) analyzing the increase in energy consumption that will likely result from new (and more efficient) solid-state lighting (SSL) technologies. The article triggered a round of commentaries and responses that have confused the debate over energy efficiency. What follows is my attempt to clarify the issue, and does not necessarily represent the views of my co-authors.
More Efficient Lighting Will Increase, Not Decrease, Energy Consumption

Our Journal of Physics article drew on 300 years of evidence to shows that, as lighting becomes more energy efficient, and thus cheaper, we use ever-more of it. The result, we note, is that "over the last three centuries, and even now, the world spends about 0.72% of its GDP on light. This was the case in the UK in 1700 (UK 1700), is the case in the undeveloped world not on grid electricity in modern times, and is the case for the developed world in modern times using the most advanced lighting technologies."

The implications of this research are important for those who care about global warming. In recent years, more efficient light bulbs have been widely viewed as an important step to reducing energy consumption and thus greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have produced analyses that assume energy efficiency technologies will provide a substantial part of the remedy for climate change by reducing global energy consumption approximately 30 percent -- a reduction nearly sufficient to offset projected economic growth-driven energy consumption increases.

Many have come to believe that new, highly-efficient, solid-state lighting -- generally LED technology, like that used on the displays of stereo consoles, microwaves, and digital clocks -- will result in reduced energy consumption. We find the opposite is true, concluding "that there is a massive potential for growth in the consumption of light if new lighting technologies are developed with higher luminous efficacies and lower cost of light."

The good news is that increased light consumption has historically been tied to higher productivity and quality of life. The bad news is that energy efficient lighting should not be relied upon as means of reducing aggregate energy consumption, and therefore emissions. We thus write: "These conclusions suggest a subtle but important shift in how one views the baseline consequence of the increased energy efficiency associated with SSL. The consequence is not a simple 'engineering' decrease in energy consumption with consumption of light fixed, but rather an increase in human productivity and quality of life due to an increase in consumption of light." This phenomenon has come to be known as the energy "rebound" effect.

The Empirical Evidence for Rebound

The findings of our SSL research inspired The Economist magazine to write a commentary about the study that was mostly correct but made a couple of errors, which we responded to in a letter. In our response, we clarified that energy prices would need to increase 12 percent, not three-fold, in order to reduce the consumption of electricity for lighting, which, to its credit, The Economist posted on its web site and published in its letters section.

Evans Mills of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory wrote on the Climate Progress blog that The Economist had "inverted" our findings. However, The Economist did not "invert" our findings, it had simply overstated an implication of them.

Efficiency advocates sometimes dismiss rebound by only looking at "direct" energy consumption -- that is, consumption by households and for private transportation. Examples of rebound in this part of the energy economy would be driving your Prius more because gasoline costs you very little, or turning up the thermostat in your efficient home. But these "direct-use" rebounds are small in comparison to "indirect-use" rebounds in energy consumption. Globally, some two-thirds of all energy is consumed indirectly-- in the energy used to produce goods and services. A residential washing machine may be energy efficient in terms of function, but in terms of production, the metal body alone requires energy to mine, smelt, stamp, coat, assemble and transport it to a dealer showroom and eventually a residential home. The energy embedded in your washing machine, or just about any product or service you consume, is very large. And remember that any money you save on your energy bills through efficient appliances or the like is re-spent on other goods and services, which each take energy to produce, all while more productive use of our money (e.g. in spending, savings and production) spurs a more robust economy, demanding even more energy.

As our recent SSL research suggests, there is strong empirical evidence that even in the "direct" part of the economy, the rebound effect can sometimes be so substantial as to eliminate essentially all energy reduction gains. But in my new research (which relies on a detailed, theoretically rigorous econometric analysis of real data), the rebound effect found in the larger "indirect" part of the economy is even more significant -- and more worrisome.

Varying degrees of rebound occur because the phenomenon works in several ways. Increasingly efficient technologies effectively lower the cost of energy, as well as the products and services in which it is embedded. This results in firms consuming more energy relative to other production inputs and producing more output profitably. Firms and individuals benefit from cheaper and more abundant products and services, causing them to find many more uses for these (and the energy they contain). A more efficient steel plant, for example, produces cheaper steel that, in turn, allows firms and individuals to afford to find more uses for the same material.

While some find the notion that increased energy efficiency increases energy consumption to be counter-intuitive, the economic theory is remarkably commonsensical. Mills claims that the idea that the rebound effect "has been postulated in theory but never shown empirically to be significant" is not the case. After many years, rebound theory has advanced to the point that it is now a reliable foundation for empirical study and the empirical evidence firmly suggests rebound exists. And remember that the "rebound effect" for other factors of production is expected, even welcomed; economists have long expected labor productivity improvements to drive even greater economic activity, for example, thus increasing demand for labor and creating new employment opportunities in the economy as a whole, even as efficient production may eliminate a handful of jobs at one factory.

The Implications of Rebound

There are significant potential implications of high levels of rebound. One is that greater energy efficiency may be a net positive in increasing economic productivity and growth but should not be relied upon as a way to reduce energy consumption and thus greenhouse gas emissions. Particularly in a world where many billions lack sufficient access to modern energy services, efficient technologies such as solid-state lighting may be central to uplifting human dignity and improving quality of life through much of the world. One might even argue that energy efficiency is still important from a climate perspective, because when efficiency leads to greater economic growth, societies will be better able and more willing to invest in more expensive but cleaner energy sources. But in this way energy efficiency is no different from other strategies for increasing economic growth. What should be reconsidered is the assumption that energy efficiency results in a direct, net decrease in aggregate energy consumption when there is a growing body of research suggesting the opposite.

Dr. Harry Saunders has a B.S. in Physics from the University of Alberta, an M.S. in Resources Planning from the University of Calgary, and a Ph.D. in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford University. Saunders coined the "Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate" in 1992 to describe macro-economic theories of energy rebound, and has published widely on energy economics, evolutionary biology, and legal theory. He can be reached at: hsaunders@decisionprocessesinc.com.
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Must read - The "Iron Law" of Climate Policy

[Roger Pielke, Jr. s a professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He recently published a book called the “Climate Fix” which deals with the practical problems of implementing effective climate policy legislation. In his book he puts forth the rationale behind the “Iron Law” of Climate Policy: The "iron law" simply states that while people are often willing to pay some price for achieving environmental objectives, that willingness has its limits.

Most climate policies such as cap and trade and/or carbon tax are imposing cost on today’s generation for which they will see no benefit. Since CO2 will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and unlike past environmental problems such as acid rain, CFCs (ozone destruction), etc any reduction in CO2 emission will only SLOW DOWN the rate of global warming. It will not stop the warming of the planet, never mind reversing the trend. So, although the public will go a small way to doing their “bit” to reduce CO2 emissions it is unlikely that they will accept the massive cost increases and radical changes to their lifestyle for the benefit of generations hundreds or thousands of years from now.

Roger Pielke has argued, as I have, that we need climate policies that provide IMMEDIATE and tangible benefits to the public, but have the added feature of also reducing CO2 emissions. Such policies must also be conducive to our current lifestyle and not demand a sack cloth and ashes solutions. Hence my argument for policies like “cap and reward” where consumers and businesses would receive credits directly to purchase low carbon products or services in exchange for paying a carbon tax or levy on their carbon consumption. Rather than having a carbon levy disappear in the hands of government to be spent on dubious projects heavily influenced by lobbyists, or worse into the hands of unscrupulous carbon offset traders, the money would be returned directly to consumers. The only catch is that consumer is restricted to e spending the returned funds on low carbon products or services, hopefully creating a virtuous circle of low carbon living.

The Internet can play a major role in delivering these low carbon products or services through de-materialization of physical products. The Internet and broadband delivery to the home can also be a leading example, in its own right, of an eligible low carbon product that could be paid for through these carbon credits.

Some would argue that energy efficiency should be part of this equation, as well. But for those of you who follow my blog know that I am very skeptical about energy efficiency in any form as it is tackling the wrong problem. The problem facing this planet is not energy consumption, but the type of energy we are consuming. We need to address the real problem – and that is eliminating energy sources that produce CO2. Smart ICT (Information, Computer, Telecommunication) technologies that eliminate the need for energy produced from fossil fuels directly, rather than trying to improve overall energy efficiency, will have far more greater bang for the buck.

I have cited many examples of this type of approach in my writings and blogs such as powering data centers with renewable energy, mobile charging for electric vehicles, 400 Hz multiplex electrical systems to power all standby electronics in our homes, solar powered cell phone networks, etc. These approaches also enhance and complement today’s modern suburban lifestyle of commuting and conspicuous consumption – which is necessary for consumer adoption.

Although ICT, including the Internet, represents 2-3% of all global emissions and 6-10% of energy consumption, it is doubling every 10 years. Even in our homes, according to the IEA, ICT products and services, in aggregate consume more energy than our traditional appliances such as stove, dishwashers etc. While other sectors of society are starting to address their CO2 emissions, the ICT community has barely started. Given the rapid growth of the ICT industry if we do not do something soon, in a few years we will soon be seen as the bad boys of CO2 emissions. – BSA]

Roger Pielke’s blog
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/

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