[I am constantly amazed how the western world continues to
focus on energy efficiency, smart meters and other energy silliness to address
the problem of climate change.
While these technologies may save money and assuage an individual’s conscience about doing something good for the environment they are absolutely irrelevant and meaningless when the developing world is adding approximately a coal plant per week. As long as we continue to increase the OVERALL number of coal plants in the world GHG emissions will continue to rise, regardless of what efficiency strategy we adopt in the western world. As long as the developing world rightly and deservedly desires a western lifestyle, their energy consumption will increase – even if they are using the most energy efficient light bulbs, computers and HAL like super smart meters. Given the abundance of coal reserves their first choice will be coal powered electricity.
While these technologies may save money and assuage an individual’s conscience about doing something good for the environment they are absolutely irrelevant and meaningless when the developing world is adding approximately a coal plant per week. As long as we continue to increase the OVERALL number of coal plants in the world GHG emissions will continue to rise, regardless of what efficiency strategy we adopt in the western world. As long as the developing world rightly and deservedly desires a western lifestyle, their energy consumption will increase – even if they are using the most energy efficient light bulbs, computers and HAL like super smart meters. Given the abundance of coal reserves their first choice will be coal powered electricity.
A big, and the fastest growing , part of this electrical
consumption will be to power ICT equipment.
Currently somewhere between 6-10% of electrical consumption is for ICT.
So what are we to do?
First we have to understand the scale of the problem. Roger
Pielke Jr has done an admirable job in his book “The Climate Fix” in describing
the enormity of the challenge. According
to Dr Pielke’s analysis we need to build a nuclear plant (or the renewable
energy equivalent) EACH AND EVERY day
for the next 50 years just to stabilize global temperature increase to 2C starting
from a baseline of 9 years ago!! We are
already over 3000 nuclear plants (or the renewable energy equivalent), give or
take, behind schedule!! Every 10 days a new nuclear plant has to be built
solely for the ICT sector for the next 50 years.
Second we have to look at what works. The biggest reduction in GHG emissions from
the electricity sector in North America was not smart meters or energy
efficiency, but the ongoing switch from coal power to gas fired electrical
plants. Changing the type of energy on the supply side of the equation has a
far greater impact on GHG emissions then anything you can do on the demand side.
But gas is only a half way measure.
Although its better than coal, gas still has a significant GHG footprint. The
obvious end game is to use 100% renewable energy. And of that renewable energy solar power is
likely to be the most common source.
Electricity from solar panels is on track to be cost competitive with
coal within the next 5-10 years.
But the biggest problem with renewable energy, particularly
solar and wind is its unreliability and predictability. Most places that have deployed considerable
renewable energy such as Denmark are still reliant on coal plants for 80% of
their electrical power. As long as you
are connected to the grid you can’t get
rid of the coal plants. Energy storage
is part of the solution on the supply side. But building solutions that can
live with this unreliable power on the demand side will probably be a lot more
effective. This is the real problem we need to solve – not energy efficiency. This
is where ICT can play an important role – firstly in moving ICT products and
services off the grid and secondly in helping other sectors of society move off
the grid. Building a distributed energy system that only uses renewable energy,
with no coal plant backup, is our only hope.
Why is it so important that we disconnect from the electrical
grid?
If you are realist and looking at the odds of building a new
nuclear power plant (or the renewable energy equivalent) each and every day for
the next 50 years, then like me you have to conclude that we are whistling past
the grave yard. We need to focus on adaptability – and learn how to live in a
much warmer climate. But a warmer
climate means a lot more severe weather patterns. The probability of an extreme heat wave
has increased enormously… by about 40 times (4000%) in the last 50 years. http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/a-defense-of-jim-hansens-climate-conclusions/download
. And this is just the beginning.
Extreme heat wave and conversely flooding is going to be very disruptive to the
electrical grid – and eventually I think the public is going to start demanding
the shut down of coal plants around the world. If they are willing to shut down
nuclear power plants in Germany and Switzerland, then it is only a matter of time when the public will
starting demanding governments to start to shut coal plants. If this starts to happen you had better have
a strategy to get off the grid. If there
are widespread protests and shutdown of coal plants there are likely to be
rolling brown outs if not black outs.
If hope against hope, we do develop a global strategy to
combat climate change, solar power will likely by the primary source of energy.
Whether it is for adaptation or mitigation building ICT solutions that only use
unpredictable and unreliable renewable energy, with no back up from coal fired
grid, will produce far bigger economic opportunities than anything related to
energy efficiency, smart meters and other silliness. – BSA]